Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FNUS75 KBOU 281354
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for Elkhorn Unit 1 Piles...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
754 AM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 MDT on March 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Rain and snow showers will affect the area today,
increasing in intensity and transitioning to all snow this
evening and overnight. Accumulating snow is possible tonight with
3-6 inches expected by Wednesday morning. In general, very moist
conditions will prevail on the ground and in the air. Light winds
are expected today and should remain 10 mph or less tonight and
Wednesday, throughout the next 36 hours leading to poor smoke
dispersal through midday Wednesday. However, smoke dispersal
should dramatically improve by Wednesday midday with better
vertical mixing and north winds around 10 mph.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain and snow likely.
CWR.................50 percent decreasing to 40 percent early in
                    the morning, then decreasing to 30 percent
                    early in the morning increasing to 40 percent
                    early in the morning.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........96%.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 5 mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0300, then 1500-1700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........3 very low .

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain and snow until 1200, then rain and
                    snow showers.
CWR.................35 percent increasing to 85 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 40.
Min humidity........77%.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 5 mph until 0900, then northeast
                    5-11 mph.
Mixing height.......2900-3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10-15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0700. fair after 1700.
Haines Index........3 very low .

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain until 2000. snow until 2300, then
                    snow likely.
CWR.................80 percent decreasing to 40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 27.
Max humidity........92%.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6-7 mph.
Mixing height.......2000-2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 15-20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 1900, then poor.
Haines Index........2 very low .

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy until 1300, then partly
                    cloudy(40-50%). Chance of snow until 1200, then
                    slight chance of rain and snow.
CWR.................20 percent decreasing to 5 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 43.
Min humidity........48%.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5-11 mph.
Mixing height.......4000-5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 15-25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 0900, then good.
Haines Index........3 very low .

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs around 50. West winds
5-6 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Rain likely and chance of snow. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in
the upper 40s. Variable winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Rain and snow likely. Lows around 30. Highs in the lower 40s.
Northeast winds 5-12 mph.


Fire Weather Table for Elkhorn Unit 1 Piles.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

03/28-00 92 48 45 32 90   CALM  1 3 1  SW 25   905   S  8  6500 P
03/28-01 93 52 48 32 89   CALM  1 3 1  SW 21   857  SE  6  4611 P
03/28-02 72 59 51 32 89   CALM  1 3 1 SSW 17   808  NE  5  2896 P
03/28-03 78 61 39 32 96   CALM  1 3 1 SSW 10  1511  SE  5  5433 P
03/28-04 74 54 29 33 90   CALM  1 3 1   S 10  1601  SE  3  5309 P
03/28-05 75 60 38 33 89   N  2  2 3 1 SSE 10  1691   E  3  5134 P
03/28-06 83 59 36 34 85   N  2  2 3 1  SE 10  1781   E  3  4909 P
03/28-07 87 59 36 34 87   N  2  2 3 1  SE 13  2077   E  5  8899 P
03/28-08 91 67 48 34 90  NE  3  3 3 1  SE 14  2372   E  7 13793 P
03/28-09 90 67 48 35 89  NE  3  3 3 1 SSE 15  2667   E  8 19590 P
03/28-10 94 75 60 36 87  NE  5  5 3 1 SSE 17  2939   E  9 23822 P
03/28-11 92 79 66 38 81  NE  6  6 2 1 SSE 20  3210   E 10 28466 P
03/28-12 94 79 66 39 79  NE  7  7 2 1 SSE 22  3482   E 12 33524 P
03/28-13 98 82 71 40 77  NE  8 13 2 1 SSE 20  3644 ENE 12 34872 P
03/28-14 98 85 76 40 77  NE  9 14 2 1 SSE 17  3805 ENE 12 36201 P
03/28-15 98 89 82 39 79 NNE  9 15 2 1 SSE 16  3967 ENE 10 37512 P
03/28-16 99 90 84 38 79 NNE  9 15 2 1 SSE 14  3517  NE 13 40285  F
03/28-17 99 91 86 37 79 NNE  9 15 2 1  SE 12  3067  NE 15 41260  F
03/28-18 99 85 76 35 82 NNE  9 15 2 1  SE 10  2618  NE 17 40438  F
03/28-19100 85 76 34 84   N  9 14 2 1   E 12  2671 NNE 17 39375 P
03/28-20100 87 79 33 86   N  8 14 2 1 ENE 12  2724 NNE 16 38236 P
03/28-21100 89 82 32 89   N  8 13 2 1  NE 13  2778   N 15 37021 P
03/28-22 99 81 70 31 90   N  8 13 2 1  NE 10  2717   N 15 35245 P
03/28-23 98 72 56 30 91   N  7  7 2 1  NE  8  2656   N 15 33513 P
03/29-00 98 63 42 29 92   N  7  7 2 1 ENE  6  2595   N 14 31824 P
03/29-01 96 63 42 29 90   N  7  7 2 1  NE  6  2410   N 16 32900 P
03/29-02 96 63 42 29 87   N  6  6 2 1 NNE  6  2225 NNW 17 33463 P
03/29-03 94 63 42 28 88 NNW  6  6 2 1 NNE  6  2040 NNW 18 33512 P
03/29-04 90 61 39 28 86 NNW  6  6 2 1 NNE  9  2131 NNW 20 35686 P
03/29-05 90 59 36 27 87 NNW  7  7 2 1   N 14  2221 NNW 20 38867 P
03/29-06 90 40 18 27 85 NNW  7  7 2 1   N 17  2312 NNW 21 42184  F
03/29-07 87 40 18 28 84 NNW  8 13 2 1   N 20  2637 NNW 22 49503  F
03/29-08 86 40 18 30 80 NNW  8 14 2 1   N 22  2962 NNW 22 57163  F
03/29-09 85 39 17 32 75 NNW  9 15 2 1   N 24  3287   N 23 65164   G
03/29-10 74 39 17 34 69 NNW 10 16 2 1   N 25  3643   N 21 66219   G
03/29-11 74 39 17 36 62   N 10 16 2 1   N 26  3999   N 20 66104   G
03/29-12 67 14  3 38 57   N 10 16 2 1   N 28  4355   N 17 64817   G
03/29-13 59 14  3 40 53   N 10 16 2 1   N 29  4643   N 16 66836   G
03/29-14 59 14  3 41 52   N  9 15 2 1   N 29  4931 NNW 16 68573   G
03/29-15 48 10  2 42 51   N  9 15 2 1   N 30  5219 NNW 15 70029   G
03/29-16 42 10  2 43 48   N  9 15 3 1   N 31  4962 NNW 16 68375   G
03/29-17 39 10  2 43 48   N  9 15 3 1   N 32  4705 NNW 16 66535   G
03/29-18 37  1  0 42 49   N  9 15 4 1   N 33  4448 NNW 17 64509   G
03/29-19 36  1  0 39 53   N  9 15 4 1   N 32  3325  NW 15 42664  F
03/29-20 34  1  0 35 60   N  9 14 3 1   N 30  2202  NW 13 24574 P
03/29-21 32  2  0 32 66   N  8 13 3 1   N 28  1079  NW 10 10239 P
03/29-22 26  2  0 30 71 NNW  7  7 3 1   N 28  1019 WNW 14 11755 P
03/29-23 21  2  0 29 73 WNW  6  6 2 1   N 26   959 WNW 16 13022 P
03/30-00 15  1  0 28 75 WNW  5  5 2 1   N 26   898 WNW 18 14043 P
03/30-01 16  1  0 28 74   W  5  5 2 1   N 25   855 WNW 18 13799 P
03/30-02 16  1  0 28 73   W  5  5 2 1   N 24   813   W 20 13513 P
03/30-03 16  1  0 28 72   W  6  6 2 1 NNW 23   770   W 20 13185 P
03/30-04 19  1  0 29 66   W  7  7 2 1 NNW 23   785   W 21 14056 P
03/30-05 19  1  0 29 64   W  8 14 2 1 NNW 23   800   W 22 14951 P
03/30-06 19  3  1 30 61   W  9 15 2 1 NNW 22   815   W 22 15869 P
03/30-07 21  3  1 32 59   W  9 14 2 1 NNW 18   987   W 23 19601 P
03/30-08 24  3  1 34 59   W  8 13 2 1 NNW 14  1159   W 23 23466 P
03/30-09 25  3  1 37 57   W  7  7 2 1 NNW  9  1331   W 24 27464 P
03/30-10 30  3  1 42 48 WSW  7  7 2 1  NW  9  2704   W 20 45828  F
03/30-11 39  3  1 46 43  SW  7  7 2 1   W 10  4078   W 15 54049  F
03/30-12 43  4  1 50 37  SW  7  7 2 1   W 10  5452   W 12 52129  F
03/30-13 48  4  1 52 35  SW  7  7 2 1   W 14  6467   W 12 61589   G
03/30-14 58  4  1 52 36  SW  6  6 2 1   W 17  7482   W 10 70973   G
03/30-15 63  4  1 52 36  SW  6  6 2 1   W 21  8497 WSW 10 80279   G
03/30-16 66  4  1 52 37 SSW  6  6 2 1   W 23  7816 WSW 12 78650   G
03/30-17 71  4  1 51 39   S  7  7 2 1   W 26  7135 WSW 13 76184   G
03/30-18 77  7  1 49 42   S  7  7 2 1   W 30  6454 WSW 13 72882   G
03/30-19 74  7  1 46 47 SSW  6  6 2 1   W 28  4788  SW 12 47119  F
03/30-20 69  7  1 41 56  SW  5  5 3 1   W 25  3121 SSW  9 26189 P
03/30-21 66  7  1 37 64  SW  3  3 3 1   W 22  1454   S  8 10094 P
03/30-22 64  7  1 35 68  SW  3  3 3 1 WSW 20  1381   S  8 10008 P
03/30-23 61  7  1 34 70  SW  2  2 3 1 WSW 18  1307   S  9  9878 P
03/31-00 59 19  4 35 67 SSW  2  2 3 1  SW 16  1234 SSE  9  9702 P
03/31-01 61 19  4 35 66 SSW  2  2 3 1  SW 16  1199 SSE  9  9279 P
03/31-02 64 19  4 35 65   CALM  1 3 1   S 16  1165 SSE  9  8865 P
03/31-03 68 19  4 35 64   CALM  1 3 1   S 16  1130 SSE  8  8459 P
03/31-04 71 19  4 33 69   CALM  1 3 1   S 18  1092  SE  8  7880 P
03/31-05 74 19  4 32 71   CALM  1 3 1 SSE 20  1054  SE  8  7322 P
03/31-06 76 39 17 32 72 SSW  2  2 3 1 SSE 22  1016 ESE  8  6783 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...SCHLATTER
REQUESTED BY...Weston Toll
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705278.1/BOU


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