Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FNUS71 KBTV 242245
FWSBTV

Spot Forecast for Pawlet RX...VT-FPR
National Weather Service Burlington VT
645 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (802) 658-0207, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Increasing southerly low level flow on Tuesday will bring deeper
moisture to the region. This means more cloud cover...higher
humidities...and increasing chances for rain. The best chances for
rain will come Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday night
before rain eventually moves east of the area on Wednesday. The
other element of note will be gusty southeast winds through much
of the burn period.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). A chance of showers
                    early in the morning...then showers likely in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...After 8am and continues through the day.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300-2600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 20 mph...increasing to 20 to 26
                    mph early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........89     96     100    100    100
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30     40     60     70     70
Temp............45     47     48     49     49
RH..............73     71     68     68     68
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 9   SE 10  SE 12  SE 12
20 ft wind gust.15     15     20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   1800   2200   2600   2200
Transport wind..SE 16  SE 18  SE 22  SE 26  SE 24
Haines index....2      3      3      3      3

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Showers likely.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...Showers continue through much of the night.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......500-1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 14 to 22 mph...decreasing to 10 to 12 mph
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........100    100    100    100    100    100
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).70     70     70     70     70     70
Temp............48     47     47     47     46     47
RH..............71     74     74     76     83     83
20 ft wind......SE 12  SE 12  SE 12  SE 9   SE 8   SE 8
20 ft wind gust.25     25     20     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....1800   1500   1500   1000   500    500
Transport wind..SE 22  SE 22  SE 21  SE 17  SE 12  SE 10
Haines index....3      3      2      2      2      2

$$
Forecaster...Evenson
Requested by...Lars Lund
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707698.0/BTV
.EMAIL Lars.Lund@vermont.gov



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