Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 290620
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR CARRICK VALLEY ROAD FIRE...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
120 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0200 EST ON NOVEMBER 29.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...
CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST
IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS RAINING IN JOHNSTOWN AND THOSE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES. EXPECT IT TO BEGIN RAINING
BETWEEN 3 TO 4 EDT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE BETWEEN A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH MOST
OF THAT OCCURRING THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH CONTINUING THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MIN HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........2...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........100 100 100 99  98  98  98  99  95  88  84  79
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........
TEMP............47  48  49  50  51  52  53  54  54  54  54  53
RH..............89  90  90  87  84  87  86  90  90  90  93  92
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   5   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   4   4
20 FT WIND GUST.25  20  20  20  20  20  15  10  10      5   5
HAINES INDEX....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG. A
                    CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........69  64  62  59  58  57  56  55  60  70  74  81
WEATHER COV.....    PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....    FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG RN  RN
TSTM COV........
TEMP............53  52  52  52  52  52  52  51  51  51  50  50
RH..............89  89  89  89  89  86  86  89  89  89  93  89
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX....2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO
                    6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........94  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.....CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TSTM COV........
TEMP............48  48  48  50  52  54  56  58  59  59  59  58
RH..............96  96  100 96  96  93  90  86  80  80  80  83
20 FT WIND DIR..S   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..2   2   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...WFO-CTP/CERU
REQUESTED BY...JIM SMITH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1603718.0/CTP
.EMAIL JAMESSM@PA.GOV


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