Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 291414
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR MO BASIC...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1014 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0950 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA
WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WIND
OVER THE REGION TODAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RANGE FROM 50 TO 55 PERCENT
BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM/LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TOMORROW SHOULD
BE ISOLATED BUT THE PERCENT CHANCE IS NOT ZERO.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6
                    MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4800-6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 0 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............79  38  41  47  47  55  62  66  64  58  53
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................55  56  57  60  64  67  69  69  70  71  69
RH..................93  86  81  76  69  63  57  53  52  53  54
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  S   SW  SW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   2   2   3   5   5   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5           10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.2 1.1 2.2 3.3 4.1 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.1 5.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....0   1   3   6   8   9   8   8   8   8   7
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 6 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............48  42  40  40  40  40  40  40  47  47  47  47
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................70  69  68  65  63  62  60  58  56  55  53  52
RH..................57  61  66  71  78  79  81  82  83  83  84  87
20 FT WIND DIR......W   NW  NW  N   NE  E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD......6   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10      5   5   5   5   5   5           5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.1 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   5   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5
                    TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1300...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-4300 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    5800-7500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 3700-5100 FT AGL
                    LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 1 TO 6 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............47  47  46  55  65  69  69  69  75  75  75  75
WEATHER COV.........        SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                            ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
TEMP................51  51  56  58  60  62  64  66  67  68  70  68
RH..................92  90  84  78  73  69  65  62  59  57  55  60
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   5   5   5   6   6   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5               10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.2 1.3 2.8 4.3 5.8 7.0 7.5 6.6 5.1 3.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....2   1   1   2   3   5   6   6   6   6   5   5
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   2   3   4   4   4   4
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER
REQUESTED BY...JOE MILLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE TRAINING
.TAG 20140929.MOBAS.01/CTP



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