Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 231601
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR JACK S TORCH UNIT 1...PA GAME COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1201 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF CANADA WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DRY
WEATHER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH LATE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 1 TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................52  55  57  60  63  63  62
RH..................65  58  52  47  44  46  49
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD......3   2   2   2   2   3   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5           5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.6 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....5   3   2   1   1   2   2
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 100-400 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 2 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 1 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTH AROUND 2 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............0   0   0   1   1   1   1   1   10  28  50  51
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................60  59  58  56  55  53  52  51  51  50  50  50
RH..................53  58  63  66  70  74  77  80  82  84  86  87
20 FT WIND DIR......N   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......7   5   5   5   5   3   3   5   5   6   7   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....10                  5   5           10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   NE  NE  NE  E   SE  E   NE  N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....2   2   2   2   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4400-4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 1 TO 7 MPH...INCREASING TO EAST 12 TO 16
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............57  59  59  56  31  39  47  55  59  60  63  66
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................50  50  51  54  58  61  63  65  66  66  66  66
RH..................86  84  80  75  68  62  57  53  51  51  52  54
20 FT WIND DIR......E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......8   9   9   9   9   9   10  10  12  12  12  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.2 3.2 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   N   N   N   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
TRANSP WIND SPD.....1   1   2   7   12  16  16  15  14  14  14  15
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...LAMBERT
REQUESTED BY...BRENT MCNEAL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140924.JACKS.01/CTP



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