Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 231121
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Range 37 Rx...PA Army National Guard
National Weather Service State College PA
721 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on March 23.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will build across the prescribed area today, supplying
state with sunny skies and light winds. RH will become very low...
falling through the 20s this afternoon. Winds will be very light
from the northwest however...at less than 5 mph.

A warm front will approach from the west tonight, bringing a chance of
light freezing rain by morning...becoming plain rain by 9 AM Friday.
Any light rain or freezing rain should lift north of the burn area by
Friday afternoon, with much milder air spreading into the state.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 43.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......900-2800 ft AGL...increasing to 3300-4200 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5...or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   1   1   2   3   4   5   8   9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............24  28  32  35  37  40  41  43  43
RH..............47  42  36  32  31  27  25  23  22
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.2 3.8
Transp wind dir.N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.9   8   8   8   7   7   7   6   6
Haines index....4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). A chance of
                    freezing rain late.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 28.
Max humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming southeast
                    around 5 mph late.
Mixing height.......1300-2700 ft AGL...decreasing to 0-300 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....West around 5 mph...becoming south 3 to 7 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5...or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........10  12  13  19  30  35  38  43  46  52  65  71
Weather cov.....                                            CHC
Weather type....                                            FZR
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............42  38  35  34  32  31  31  30  30  30  29  29
RH..............25  31  36  39  47  51  53  55  58  60  66  69
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Transp wind dir.W   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   3   3   3   3   5   6   6   7   7   7   7
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    freezing rain early in the morning...then rain
                    or freezing rain likely early in the morning. A
                    chance of rain showers late in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......400-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 17 mph...becoming southwest 17 to 18
                    mph late.
Haines Index........2 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........76  87  92  91  89  88  85  80  77  77  77  77
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....FZR FZR RN  RN  RN  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............30  30  31  33  36  38  41  43  46  48  50  52
RH..............69  75  75  72  69  67  65  62  60  60  58  59
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.8   10  12  12  12  12  13  15  16  17  18  17
Haines index....4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/DeVoir
Requested by...Tim Haydt
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705001.0/CTP
.EMAIL thaydt@pa.gov



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