Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FNUS73 KDDC 191145
FWSDDC

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST LSM...U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
545 AM CST THU JAN 19 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CST ON JANUARY 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 6 TO 10 MPH
BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
MUCH, IF AT ALL, THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINING IN THE 85 TO 93 PERCENT RANGE. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW AS WELL GIVEN ABSENSE OF SUNSHINE TO HELP CREATE DEEP
THERMALS.

.TODAY...

CWR.................10 PERCENT.
RH..................89 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 83 PERCENT.
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 400-1900 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 1100-2800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 13 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 13
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
TEMPERATURE.........44 AT IGNITION...MAX 49.

TIME (CST)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........96     96     96     88     81
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............44     45     46     46     46
RH..............89     89     86     83     83
20 FT WIND......SE 13  SE 13  SE 12  SE 9   SE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     10
HAINES INDEX....3      3      4      3      3

.TONIGHT...

CWR.................10 PERCENT.
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST 6 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-400 FT AGL.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 36.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........86     91     87     83     84     89
WEATHER COV.....                            PATCHY PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   FOG    FOG
TEMP............45     45     40     39     38     37
RH..............82     79     92     92     92     92
20 FT WIND......SE 6   NE 5   N 3    NE 3   N 3    NE 3
20 FT WIND GUST.              5      5      5      5
HAINES INDEX....2      3      3      4      4      4

.FRIDAY...

CWR.................10 PERCENT.
RH..................MIN 59 PERCENT.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 6 TO
                    12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2000-3200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 53.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........94     86     77     73     71     68
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............36     38     42     48     52     51
RH..............92     92     91     75     63     61
20 FT WIND......NE 3   NE 3   E 5    SE 6   S 7    SW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.
.MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WEST WINDS
AROUND 8 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...UMSCHEID
REQUESTED BY...BILL WALN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700541.0/DDC



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