Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FNUS73 KDLH 062356 AAA
FWSDLH

SPOT FORECAST FOR SKIBO...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1840 CDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THE WILDFIRE SITE WITH GENERALLY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
FALL..WITH HUMIDITY SLOWLY RISING FROM 30-35 PERCENT INTO THE 40
PERCENT RANGE BY LATE EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT
BRIEF SHOWERS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM...BUT NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT
COULD DIRECTLY AFFECT FIRE ATTACK EFFORTS: 1) DESPITE LARGER SCALE
NORTHWEST WINDS..THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME WHERE WINDS
ARE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND GUSTY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST..AS HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE TO A MORE CONSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY 8 PM.
2) A PLUME OF RATHER DENSE SMOKE FROM A NEW WILDFIRE IN NORTHWEST
ONTARIO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFECT MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES..OR
PERHAPS LOWER AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AND 3) PERIODS OF
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH COULD PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 8
PM..BUT BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE
BETWEEN 8 AND 11 PM THIS EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY AT THIS TIME..SATURDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...BUT HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL AGAIN BE VERY LOW WITH MOST AREAS FROM 18 TO 24
PERCENT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41.
MAX HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 29 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (189900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (6800 KNOT-FT).

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY COVER.......MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR CLEAR  MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............77     66     58     51     47     43
RH..............31     44     48     44     42     49
20 FT WIND DIR..N      NW     NW     N      NW     NW
20 FT WIND SPD..18     14     12     9      5      5
20 FT WIND GUST.32     23     20     14     10     8

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT TO
                    EXCELLENT (331500-365800 KNOT-FT).

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY COVER.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............41     46     56     60     62     63
RH..............61     59     42     31     25     23
20 FT WIND DIR..NW     NW     NW     NW     NW     NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5      5      9      9      14     14
20 FT WIND GUST.7      9      15     22     25     25

$$
FORECASTER...DAN
REQUESTED BY...RYAN KINGSLEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160506.SKIBO.02/DLH



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