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Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

000
FNUS73 KDTX 201249
FWSDTX

SPOT FORECAST FOR TOBICO MARSH...MI DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
849 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 EDT ON MAY 20.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.  PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL SEE A BRIEF SHIFT TO EASTERLY
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM AS THE LAKE BREEZE SHIFTS OFF SAGINAW BAY.  A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 AM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH...THEN
DRY THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD.  INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS THROUGH 10 AM...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 PM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8 TO
                    16 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL BY
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENTILATION RATE....EXCELLENT (MAX...600).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
SKY (%).........69  75  81  80  78  77  76  75
WEATHER COV.....            CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............72  73  74  75  75  75  75  74
RH..............73  72  70  68  66  66  69  72
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT WIND SPD..8   10  10  10  10  10  8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.8   10  10  10  10  10  8   7
EYE LVL WND GST.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.5
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
VRATE (KT-FT)...200 300 500 600 600 600 500 300

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT)BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT)BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    (65-75 PERCENT) OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (MIN...0).

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
SKY (%).........73     71     69     66     68     70
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............72     67     64     62     61     60
RH..............76     80     85     95     91     90
20 FT WIND DIR..SW     S      S      SW     S      S
20 FT WIND SPD..6      6      6      7      6      6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
VRATE (KT-FT)...200    100    0      0      0      0

$$
FORECASTER...RICHTER
REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130520.TOBIC.01/DTX