Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FNUS73 KEAX 161511
FWSEAX

Spot Forecast for Meads...USFWS
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
911 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on November 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at 1-800-438-0596, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds will be fairly light through the day on Thursday, but will
be increasing during the overnight hours as the surface pressure
gradient increases. Along with the stronger winds overnight higher
moisture moves in, which will help keep RH values well above any
critical thresholds. There may also be some light rain or drizzle
on Friday along with cloudy skies.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Temperature.........38 at ignition...Max 56.
RH..................76 percent at ignition...Min 47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds east at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 800-2200 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........23  19  14  10  10  11  11  17  24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............38  42  46  50  52  53  55  53  50
RH..............76  67  58  52  50  48  47  50  58
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E
20 FT wind spd..3   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5                   10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.5 0.8
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   6   6   7   7   9   10  13  15
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    drizzle after midnight.
CWR.................1 percent.
Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......0-700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 26 mph increasing to 28 to 33 mph
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........30  41  51  62  71  79  88  87  86  86  88  90
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                        DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............48  48  48  48  48  48  49  49  50  51  52  53
RH..............63  64  67  67  70  74  74  83  83  88  88  88
20 FT wind dir..E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   7   8   9   7   8   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.            10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.17  18  21  22  24  25  26  28  28  30  31  33
Haines index....4   4   4   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    drizzle in the morning, then slight chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................1 percent.
Temperature.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 9 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......700-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 32 to 37 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........92  92  92  92  91  88  87  84  78  75  76  78
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............54  55  56  58  59  61  63  65  67  68  68  68
RH..............88  88  88  85  87  87  84  81  75  73  73  72
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   11  12  13  14  15  16  16  16  16  16  15
20 FT wind gust.15  20  20  25  25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.36  36  36  36  36  37  37  37  37  36  35  32
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Leighton
Requested by...Deon Steinle
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1718913.0/EAX
.EMAIL deon_steinle@fws.gov


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