Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
000
FNUS74 KEPZ 171535
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR MEADOW CRK PILES...SILVER CITY DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
835 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0845 MST ON DECEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO GENERATE BANDS OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO HOLD AROUND 6500
FEET THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND DROP TO AROUND 6000 FEET AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS SHOW UP TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW FOR NEIGHBORING
PEAKS WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL NEAR THE AREA OF INTEREST THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND 4000 FEET AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. THIS COUPLED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS
WILL RESULT IN FAIR VENT RATES MOVING INTO THE GOOD CATEGORY BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TODAY. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIXING LEVELS BUT LOWER
TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS. EVEN AT THIS VENT RATES SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH
THE FAIR CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY. A FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY
BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL INCHES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED SNOW
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS SNOW
                    SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4100 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 16 KNOTS.
MAX VENT RATES......65000 - 70000 KT-FT (GOOD).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 9 TO 14 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 6 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300-5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 7 KNOTS.
MAX VENT RATE.......40000 - 50000 KT-FT (FAIR).

$$
FORECASTER...LANEY
REQUESTED BY...IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141217.MEADO.01/EPZ





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.