Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FNUS74 KLZK 211143
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Reeves Branch Aerial (Big Piney)...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
543 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on February 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...Lingering light rain will affect much of the area
through mid afternoon, in association with a slow moving upper
level low. Dry, and very warm conditions are expected for
Wednesday and Thursday. A dry cold front will affect the region on
Friday, and will promote near normal temperatures

.TODAY...

Temperature.........59 at ignition...Max 66.
RH..................81 percent at ignition...Min 61 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 12 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds northwest at 5 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 5 to 7
                    mph.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog in
                    the morning. Chance of rain showers in the
                    morning, then slight chance of rain showers in
                    the afternoon.
Dispersion..........8 increasing to 28.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6322 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  61  63  64  65  66  66  65
RH..............81  75  70  66  64  62  61  62
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.        10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.        10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.8   8   9   10  12  12  10  9
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  20  20  20  20  20  20

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 49.
RH..................Max 97 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 8 mph.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
LVORI...............4.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Dispersion..........5 early in the evening.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 5250 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  60  58  56  55  54  53  52  52  51  50  50
RH..............67  74  78  81  84  86  89  90  89  89  90  92
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
Eye lvl wnd gst.
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.8   6   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.WEDNESDAY...

Temperature.........Max 73.
RH..................Min 42 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 5 mph shifting to the south 6 to
                    10 mph late in the morning.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............9 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Dispersion..........10 increasing to 22 early in the afternoon,
                    then increasing to 27 early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 18 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 5345 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............49  49  50  54  59  63  67  70  72  73  73  72
RH..............94  97  95  83  71  62  56  49  45  42  43  45
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   2   2   2   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.N   N   NW  NW  W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.3   3   3   3   5   6   8   9   10  10  9   8
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...55
Requested by...Michael Haisten
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702422.3/LZK
.EMAIL Mhaisten@fs.fed.us


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