Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FNUS72 KMLB 241943
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for indiantown wildfire...Martin county
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
343 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1600 EDT on May 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Good afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect for the burn site through 11 pm. Strong and gusty southwest
winds 20 to 30 mph will produce excellent dispersion the remainder
of this afternoon. Fast moving showers and lightning storms will
increase in coverage over Martin county through sunset. The best
timing will be from 6 to 9 pm. Damaging winds around 60 mph will
be possible as the storms push through. Additional rain with
embedded storms may redevelop after midnight but the threat for
severe storms will be lower.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms increasing
                    in coverage through early evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 18 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1500-2600 ft AGL decreasing to 300-400 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 22 to 31 mph decreasing to 18 to 21
                    mph after midnight.
Dispersion index....66 decreasing to 20.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 4 in the late evening and
                    overnight.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........90  90  93  93  93  93  93  93  92  92  92  92
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50  50  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............85  82  80  79  78  77  77  76  76  76  76  76
RH..............65  62  74  77  82  85  85  85  85  85  87  87
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..22  18  16  14  13  13  14  15  17  17  16  15
20 FT wind gust.25  25  20  15  15  15  15  20  20  25  20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 1.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.31  29  26  25  23  22  21  20  18  18  18  20
Dispersion idx..66  45  24  22  21  20  19  18  16  17  17  18
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 1100, then 16-25 strikes
                    until 1600, then 9-15 strikes until 1700, then
                    1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 21 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......400-1900 ft AGL increasing to 2700-3900 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southwest 21 to 30 mph shifting to the west 23
                    to 31 mph late in the morning, then decreasing
                    to 17 to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....17 increasing to 34 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 52 late in the morning increasing
                    to 67 late in the morning decreasing to 57.
LVORI...............4 decreasing to 2 in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........92     82     82     82     62     62
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60     60     60     60     60     60
LAL.............3      3      3      4      4      4
Temp............76     77     80     84     87     84
RH..............87     85     77     67     59     63
20 ft wind......S 15   S 15   SW 20  W 23   W 22   W 16
20 ft wind gust.              25     30     30     20
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    1900   3100   3900   3200
Transport wind..SW 21  SW 25  SW 30  SW 30  W 25   W 20
Dispersion idx..17     16     52     70     69     59
LVORI...........4      4      3      2      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Kelly
Requested by...BBaldast
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1710027.0/MLB
.EMAIL bbaldast@martin.fl.us



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