Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FNUS73 KMPX 181322
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Coldwater Springs...NPS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
822 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on March 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION... Winds will start out NNW this morning and
gradually shift more westerly throughout the day. Sustained speeds
will be around 10-15 mph, become more gusty later in the day. Dewpoints
will be low, but cooler temperatures will help keep RH values
higher today. Min RH will bottom out in the high 20s for the
Coldwater Springs burn site this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Temperature.........22 at ignition...Max 37.
RH..................52 percent at ignition...Min 27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 9 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 9 to 10
                    mph shifting to the west 10 to 13 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /45800 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /58200 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 16 mph shifting to the west 14
                    to 17 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............22  24  26  28  31  33  35  36  37  37  35  34
RH..............52  47  46  42  37  34  32  29  28  28  30  33
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..9   10  10  10  10  10  12  13  13  13  13  12
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  14  15  15  17  18  18  18  20  18
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.6 2.6 1.1
Transp wind dir.N   N   NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Transp wind spd.16  15  14  14  14  14  15  16  17  18  20  17
Haines index....4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Min 32.
RH..................Max 69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (57300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (9400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph shifting to the northwest
                    early in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Temperature.........Max 49.
RH..................Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 13 to 21 mph increasing to
                    around 23 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (14300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (112200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (117200
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 24 mph increasing to 26 to 29
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dettmann
Requested by...Brandon Ramirez
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2407261.0/MPX
.DELDT 03/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Brandon_ramirez@nps.gov


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