Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FNUS73 KMQT 181744
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for Whispering Pines RX...MI DNR
National Weather Service Marquette MI
144 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on October 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will cross the area tonight with high
pressure building in later Thursday afternoon. No rain is expected
as the front moves through and skies will be mostly clear through
Thursday. Winds will shift to the west on Thursday with gusts of 15
to 20 mph. It is possible that wind gusts could end up as high as 20
to 30 mph. After high temperatures into the lower 70s today at the
fire site, temperatures will be slightly cooler in the low to middle
60s on Thursday. RH values will be much drier than today with min RH
values of 20-25 percent. Friday should be warmer and breezy but min
RH values will be similar to today. The next chance of rain at the
fire site will not arrive until late Saturday afternoon or Saturday
night.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....53 at ignition...Max 65.
Min humidity........41 percent at ignition...Min 25 percent.
33-foot winds.......Winds west 6 to 11 mph.
20-foot winds.......West winds 4 to 8 mph.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 26 mph decreasing to around 16 mph
                    early in the evening.
Ventilation index...Fair (177) at ignition. Max...good (416)
                    increasing to excellent (985) in the afternoon,
                    then decreasing to good (450) early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 800-1900 ft
                    AGL increasing to 3000-4700 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon, then decreasing to 1500 ft AGL early
                    in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5...or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Wave height.........Less than 1 foot.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Sky (%).........6   7   8   8   7   6   5   6   7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Temp............53  57  60  63  65  65  65  63  59
RH..............41  35  30  27  25  25  26  30  36
33 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
33 ft wind spd..11  11  11  12  12  12  9   9   9
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..9   9   9   10  10  10  7   7   7
Wind gust.......10  10  10  15  15  15
VIndx kt-ft/100.177 416 730 923 985 896 676 450 207
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.25  25  26  25  24  22  18  17  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.9 3.2 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.2 3.0 1.5
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Wave height (ft)0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Min temperature.....Min 42.
Max humidity........Max 78 percent.
33-foot winds.......Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds up to 4 mph.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph increasing to around 25
                    mph late.
Ventilation index...Poor (0).
Mixing height.......0-300 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 to 5...or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........8      6      5      4      6      6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............56     51     48     47     44     43
RH..............43     51     58     63     68     74
33 ft wind......SW 5   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5
20 ft wind......SW 4   SW 4   SW 4   SW 4   SW 4   SW 4
Wind gust.......
VIndx kt-ft/100.33     4      38     48     55     43
Transport wind..W 15   W 15   W 17   SW 22  SW 25  SW 25
Mix hgt (ft)....300    BLW100 300    300    300    200
Haines index....5      4      4      4      4      4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Max 69.
Min humidity........Min 52 percent.
33-foot winds.......South winds 7 to 12 mph.
20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 9 mph.
Transport winds.....South 25 to 26 mph.
Ventilation index...Good (508) increasing to good (587) late.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL increasing to 1700-2700 ft AGL
                    late.
Haines Index........4...or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........5      5      9      22     15     18
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............43     51     60     67     69     68
RH..............77     66     57     53     52     56
33 ft wind......S 6    S 6    S 10   S 12   S 12   S 12
20 ft wind......S 5    S 5    S 8    S 10   S 10   S 10
Wind gust.......              10     12     12     11
VIndx kt-ft/100.55     204    345    427    574    537
Transport wind..SW 25  SW 26  SW 26  SW 25  SW 25  S 26
Mix hgt (ft)....300    900    1500   1900   2600   2300
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
Forecaster...JLA
Requested by...Steve Sanville
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717481.0/MQT


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