Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FNUS71 KRNK 271803
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Glade Mtn. Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
103 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EST on February 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

General overview:
High pressure over the area today will drift east as a weak
upper-level disturbance passes to the north of the area by
tonight. A warm front will lift north through the area Tuesday
followed by a strong cold front late Wednesday. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms are likely along and ahead of the
front on Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
Rainfall amounts will range from one quarter to one half an
inch with the highest amounts in the mountains and the
lighter amounts in the piedmont.

Winds will be strong and gusty from the northwest behind the
front on Wednesday night and Thursday. Cold high pressure
will build in for the end of the week. Winds weaken on
Thursday night and Friday.

Local overview:
Warm moist air overrunning dry cool air will keep clouds over the
area though this afternoon. Under thick cloud cover, temperatures
will slowly warm into the lower to mid 50s. Humidity levels will
hover around 30 percent this afternoon this rise going into this
evening. Also with the thick clouds, winds will remain light,
under 10 mph. There is a very low chance (5 percent) for a wetting
rain today.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (75-90 percent)...then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South 6 to 10 mph with gusts up to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........S 12 to 20 mph.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................4...increasing to 34.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........78  87  85  83  79
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10
Temp............46  47  48  51  50
RH..............36  33  32  30  34
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  11  11  11  10
20 FT wind gust.18  20  21  21  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5
Mixng wind dir..S   S   S   S   S
Mixng wind spd..16  18  20  21  20
LVORI...........2   1   1   1   1
ADI.............29  32  34  36  38
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 20 to 25 mph...decreasing to 14 to 16 mph
                    overnight.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................21...decreasing to 13 in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........74     73     70     67     65     62
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     10     10     10     10     20
Temp............49     48     47     46     46     45
RH..............38     44     48     56     66     72
20 ft wind......S 10   S 10   S 10   S 9    S 8    S 8
20 ft wind gust.20     20     20     20     20     15
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   700    300    300    300    300
Mixing wind......S 25   S 24   S 16   S 14   S 14   S 15
LVORI...........2      2      2      3      4      4
ADI.............23     22     14     12     12     13
Haines index....4      4      4      3      3      3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). A chance of
                    showers.
CWR (0.01 in).......20 percent...increasing to 40 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 12 to 21 mph...increasing to 20 to 25
                    mph early in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................18...increasing to 30 early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........60     58     57     61     68     84
Weather cov.....              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20     20     20     40     40     30
Temp............44     46     51     54     57     59
RH..............83     84     73     68     63     59
20 ft wind......S 8    S 7    S 7    SW 9   SW 11  SW 12
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    300    500    900    1400
Mixing wind......S 15   S 14   SW 12  SW 17  SW 22  SW 22
LVORI...........5      5      4      3      3      3
ADI.............17     15     13     19     26     34
Haines index....3      3      4      3      3      3

$$
Forecaster...Stonefield
Requested by...Harold Sutherland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1703008.0/RNK


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