Issued by NWS Ohio RFC
AGUS71 KTIR 021646
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
1146 AM EST Monday, March 2, 2015
High pressure is strengthening over the Ohio Valley today providing
generally dry and quiet conditions. This respite will quickly come to an
end Tuesday as warm air advection generates some freezing rain then rain
across the majority of the basin, lasting into Wednesday. Rain will be
heavy at times especially for areas south of the Ohio River. Cold air
behind the front will cause precipitation to transition over to snow
Wednesday night before the deeper moisture exits the region and snow comes
to an end.
Drier and cooler conditions are expected late week into the weekend with
just a few weak disturbances dropping down every couple of days, generating
some light snow showers as each passes.
...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday on top of an extensive snow pack is
expected to generate widespread minor flooding. Moderate or even major
flooding is possible, particularly in the southeast quadrant. It appears
the flood threat is lower in middle TN due to the lack of snow on the ground,
and also across the northern third of the Ohio Valley where there is plenty
of snow-pack, but the relatively cooler temperatures will help alleviate
excessive snowmelt concerns.
...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Rain and snow fell across most of the basin. The western half of the basin
saw around 0.25" or less, while the eastern half received 0.25" to 0.50".
Amounts over 1" fell in parts of WV.
...72-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Locations south of the Ohio River can expect 1.50" to 3.50", most of which
will fall as rain. The higher end totals are expected across southern WV,
southern KY, and middle TN although there is still plenty of uncertainty.
North of the mainstem Ohio, amounts between 0.25" to 1.00" are expected
with locally heavier amounts to 1.50" immediately along the Ohio River. The
majority of all this precipitation will fall on Days 2 and 3, with little
or nothing on Day 1.
...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
Forecast precipitation graphics are available on the OHRFC Website
at the following address: http://weather.gov/ohrfc/ForecastPrecipitation