Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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AGUS71 KTIR 231518
HMDTIR
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
1118 AM EDT Tuesday, May 23, 2017

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The Ohio River forecast basin is currently sitting in between two rainmaking
systems. A stationary front off to the southeast is bringing heavy rains to the
southeastern US with some precipitation swathing along and into the southeast
edge of the basin.  To the northwest, a system is bringing precipitation into
the far northwest corner of the basin.  The latter system is the one that will
strengthen, drop into the basin and bring the Ohio valley rain chances starting
tonight and on into Friday morning.

Models are in good agreement that a surface and associated upper low pressure
system will drop to the south out of the upper Great Lakes and cut-off.  With it
cut-off it will move slowly off to the east as it spawns precipitation all
around for Wednesday to Friday.  General agreement is that the central basin
(Ohio, eastern IN, etc) and the southeast corner of the basin is likely to
contain the highest totals.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...
Minor to moderate flooding continues in western Indiana. Additional rains this
week will result in significant river rises and the potential for some
isolated additional minor flooding is elevated.

...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
A quarter to a half of an inch fell along the far southeast border of the basin,
but tapered off very quickly to zero.  A few showers of very light amounts (less
than a tenth or so) fell along the eastern highlands as well as along the far
northwest edge of the basin.

...48-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
With the incoming system tonight, widespread rain is forecast across the entire
Ohio River forecast basin over the next 48 hours. Heaviest amounts were forecast
across the southeast quarter of the basin, western OH, and middle Tennessee
where an inch to an inch and a half are forecast.  Most other areas are
generally looking about a quarter of an inch to three quarters of an inch.

...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
Points along the following river basins were in flood Tuesday morning:
 River Basin     Forecast Point   Flood Stage Latest Stg Tendency *
Wabash River     West Lafayette        11         17.2    Falling
Wabash River     Covington             16         21.0    Rising
Wabash River     Montezuma             14         19.4    Steady
Wabash River     Terre Haute           14         17.1    Steady
Wabash River     Riverton              15         17.3    Steady
Little Wabash Ri Clay City             18         18.2    Steady
Little Wabash Ri Carmi                 27         30.3    Falling

Forecast precipitation graphics are available on the OHRFC Website
at the following address:  http://weather.gov/ohrfc/ForecastPrecipitation

* Tendency based on observed value and a 1-day forecast.
$$





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