Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXAK02 KWNH 011744
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
143 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 05 2015 - 12Z THU JUL 09 2015


THE 00Z/01 ECMWF AND 06Z/01 GFS WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE HANDLING OF THE BIG CYCLONE LIFTING INTO THE ALEUTIANS LATE
THIS WEEKEND. IN GENERAL, THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS MUCH
BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION AT THE
MEDIUM RANGE THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF MODEL CYCLES. THE 00Z/01
ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER WITH ITS ROBUST ARCTIC HIGH NESTLING JUST
EAST OF THE YUKON NEXT WEEK, SO PREFER TO RELY ON THE 06Z/01 GFS
AS A SYNOPTIC TEMPLATE TO AFFORD THE BEST PROBABILISTIC BALANCE
FOR ALL THE WFOS.


CISCO

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