Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5
000
FXUS02 KWBC 311600
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VALID 12Z THU SEP 03 2015 - 12Z MON SEP 07 2015

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS HAVE
BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WPC
CONTINUITY. THIS RESEMBLES A GENERAL COMPOSITE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION THU INTO FRI...BUT LEANS ON THE MORE AMPLIFLIED AND LESS
PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS IN FAVOR OF FLOW AMPLIFICATION OF THE PAST FEW ECMWF AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT GFS RUNS. WPC CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT IN A PATTERN
WITH NEAR AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY.


...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS WITH AN AMPLIFIED AND COOLING/UNSETTLING NWRN
US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN ERNEST LATER THIS WEEK MAY
SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY/WORK OVER THE N-CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW A LEAD AND WAVY SURFACE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED/TERRAIN ENHANCED PCPN FOCUS DIG GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND N-CENTRAL ROCKIES THEN N-CENTRAL US
THU-NEXT MON. A WARMING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS IN RESPONSE FROM
THE SRN ROCKIES NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NERN US TO REPLACE
EXITING LEFTOVER LEAD IMPULSE ENERGY. A FAVORABLE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FEED THROUGH THE SWRN US NEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES SHOULD
PROVIDE DAILY CONVECTION POTENTIAL RIDING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY SPREADS OVERTOP MUCH OF THE E-CENTRAL
US. UNCERTAIN TRAPPED WEAKNESSES STEMMING OUT FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/GULF COAST AND SERN US UNDERNEATH ALONG WITH LINGERING
TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS LOCAL
MOISTURE/CONVECTION.

SCHICHTEL

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.