Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 201215
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
714 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2018

VALID 00Z SUN JAN 21 2018 - 00Z SUN JAN 28 2018

A TRANSITIONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WEAK SHORTWAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST GRADUALLY LOWER HEIGHTS
OVER THE ISLANDS. RENEWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TRADES IN A PATTERN WITH
SOME RETURNING MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY HAS DECREASED
OVER THE PAST FEW GUIDANCE RUNS AND GENERALLY AGREES TO THEN
PROGRESS AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DEEP SURFACE
LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE INTO MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. A
FAVORED GUIDANCE COMPOSITE OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR A PRECIPITATION
FOCUSING TRAILING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE WESTERN ISLANDS LATE
WEEK.

SCHICHTEL

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