Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 241226
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
826 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017

VALID 00Z MON SEP 25 2017 - 00Z MON OCT 02 2017

A CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN RATHER STAGNANT JUST NORTHEAST OF
HAWAII WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD EARLY
THIS WEEK, AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE, THE INFLUENCE
FROM A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WHILE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT THEN SURFACE
RIDGING COULD POTENTIALLY REBUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SURROUNDING HAWAII THIS
WEEK.  HOWEVER, A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY
DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW NORTHWEST
OF THE ISLANDS.


GERHARDT


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