Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 171411
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
910 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2017

VALID 00Z SAT NOV 18 2017 - 00Z SAT NOV 25 2017

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE WEATHER ACROSS HAWAII
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF/CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS
CONTINUED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDES TOWARD
HAWAII.  MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONS.  SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES ON
SUNDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORTEX WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL
OUT ON MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY OPENS UP AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.  THEREAFTER, MODELS AGREE THAT A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION
WITH A GRADUAL RESUMPTION OF THE TRADE WINDS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.  MODELS NO LONGER INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH LATER NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER,
THEY BEGIN TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW
FORMING ABOUT A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF HAWAII TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND.

KONG



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