Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 041218
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
818 AM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

VALID 00Z SUN JUL 05 2015 - 00Z SUN JUL 12 2015

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLY AGREE THAT LIGHT ISLAND TRADES
SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH SOME SEA BREEZE
BASED SHOWERS UNDER A LINGERING MEAN WEAKNESS ALOFT. TRADES SHOULD
REACH MODERATE LEVELS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE
COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT SHOULD SUPPORT MORE BRISK TRADE FLOW AND
TERRAIN BASED LIFT. GRADIENTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSAGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING MONITIRED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS NOW BREWING WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD AREA OF CONVECTION BUBBLING IN THE
GENESIS AREA. GFS/ECMWF/CMC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE WELL
CLUSTERED WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS SUGGESTS GREATER THAN NORMAL
SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY, ALBEIT WITH A FORECAST AT LONGER TIME
FRAMES.

SCHICHTEL

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