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FXUS06 KWBC 011901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI AUGUST 01 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 11 2014

THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MEAN 500-HPA
HEIGHTS OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN,
WITH 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THE 500-HPA
HEIGHTS JUST NORTH OF THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER ARE PREDICTED TO BE NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE. MOST MODELS AGREE ON SUBSTANTIAL NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES IN A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA COUPLED WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE ANOMALY PREDICTED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. THERE IS NO SOLID
CONSENSUS ON THE LOCATION OF THE RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGHS AND RIDGES PREDICTED
OVER THE CONUS BY INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAS EMPHASIZED IN
THE BLEND TODAY MAINLY DUE TO CONSISTENCY WITH YESTERDAY`S FORECAST.

THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW, LEADING TO RELATIVE SMALL PROBABILITY ANOMALIES. MODEL PREDICTIONS OF NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WEST COAST FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
SOUTHERN TEXAS, AND THE SOUTHEAST DUE MAINLY TO CALIBRATED NEAR-SURFACE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS, AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES OF DRY
CONDITIONS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALASKA DUE TO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TROUGH FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TOOLS INDICATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF DRY CONDITIONS FOR
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE NAEFS AND THE GEFS
REFORECAST TOOL SHOW ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN
PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FAVORED NEAR
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE GEFS REFORECAST AND NAEFS FORECAST INDICATE A
WEAK SOUTHWEST MONSOON, ELEVATING CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE
ENHANCED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPECTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA, WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...50 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY`S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK ANOMALIES IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED FOR THE PERIOD.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 09 - 15 2014

THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA ARE PREDICTED
TO BE CLOSE TO THE LONG TERM AVERAGES. THE ONLY SUBSTANTIAL ANOMALIES EVIDENT
ON THE 8-14 DAY ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA, WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS PREDICTED IN A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE. THE SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER, IS FAIRLY LARGE.

TOOLS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A CONSISTENT SIGNAL
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED ALONG THE WEST COAST, THE SOUTHERN U.S. BORDER, AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. TODAY`S BLEND INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
OVER EASTERN CANADA, ELEVATING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHEAST CONUS.

THE NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST TOOL INDICATIONS FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
IN THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON. TOOLS FOR THE
8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNT INDICATE THE CHANCES FOR ANOMALIES ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FARTHER NORTH OVER THE MID-PORTION OF THE
CONUS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5,DUE
TO LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA, AND
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670712 - 19620724 - 19560716 - 20030720 - 20080807


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19620723 - 19670711 - 20080807 - 19560714 - 19930801


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 11 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    B    N
NEW MEXICO  N    B     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    B    B
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 09 - 15 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    N     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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