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FXUS06 KWBC 191903
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JUNE 19 2013

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - 29 2013

TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN,
DEPICTING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND STRENGTHENING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS
PREDICTED TO BE WEAKER THAN USUAL FOR LATE JUNE WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OFFSHORE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS
REMAINING THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH.

THE RETROGRESSION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ENHANCES ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, ONSHORE FLOW EARLY IN
THE PERIOD TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL OREGON
AND WASHINGTON. ABOVE-NORMAL, 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FAVOR NEAR TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND ELEVATE ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. FOLLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRIER WEATHER, ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DAILY CONVECTION INCREASES THE ECHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE ALOFT,
INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS RIDGE FAVORS A CONTINUATION ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS ALASKA. ONSHORE FLOW ELEVATES ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...60 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY`S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2013

ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FEATURE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND A WEAKENING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NORTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL, ENHANCING
ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. DUE
TO A WEAKER TROUGH OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING ONSHORE WINDS, A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PERSISTENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ALONG TILT THE ODDS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA.

GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE EAST PACIFIC WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREDICTED EVOLUTION OF THE MJO.
THIS INCREASED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO A GULF OF CALIFORNIA
MOISTURE SURGE NORTH TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS LATE IN WEEK-2. ALSO, THE
POSITION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDES A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAEFS
PRECIPITATION TOOL RESULT IN ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.

ELSEWHERE, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INCREASE CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND EASTERN CONUS.
AFTER ANOMALOUS RAINFALL ON DAYS 6 AND 7, A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION TOOLS AGREE ON ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.

A PERSISTENT, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROLONG THE RELATIVELY WARM, DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS OFFSET BY POOR MODEL CONTINUITY ON
THE AMPLITUDE OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.

FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19530602 - 20040627 - 19910621 - 20020614 - 19880611


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040626 - 20020614 - 19660602 - 19880610 - 19530602


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - 29 2013

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     N    N     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2013

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    B    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

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