Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 261934
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 26 2015

SYNOPSIS: AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE NATION. AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST ALONG A FRONTAL COMPLEX EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE STALLING
NEAR THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY JUNE 2. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES JUNE 1. LOW PRESSURE ANTICPATED OVER THE
BERING SEA EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.



HAZARDS

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND
OREGON, AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF IDAHO, FRI-SUN, MAY 29-31.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
GREAT LAKES, AND OHIO VALLEY, FRI-SAT, MAY 29-30.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC,
AND NORTHEAST, SUN-MON, MAY 31-JUN 1.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, MON, JUN 1.

ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK FOR INTERIOR EASTERN ALASKA, FRI-TUE, MAY 29-JUN 2.

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, IMMINENT, OR OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, CALIFORNIA, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR FRIDAY MAY 29 - TUESDAY JUNE 02: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (POSITIVE ANOMALIES OF 12-16 DEGREES F) FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON, AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF IDAHO MAY 29-31. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES F ARE EXPECTED
FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION.



AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN (IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
IN 24 HOURS) FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
GREAT LAKES, AND OHIO VALLEY MAY 29-30. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD, HEAVY RAIN (IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS) IS FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALCHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST MAY
31-JUN 1. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKLEY DURING THE PERIOD OVER THESE REGIONS BUT
MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE SPECIFICATION OF A SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD AT THE
CURRENT TIME.



LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LEADS TO HEAVY RAIN (IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
IN 24 HOURS) FOR PARTS OF THE REGION JUNE 1.



IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA, CONTINUED WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
FAVOR A SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.



NUMEROUS AREAS OF POSSIBLE, LIKELY, IMMINENT, AND OCCURRING FLOODING ARE
INDICATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS, WITH ALL THE
HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED IN RECENT DAYS AND WEEKS. TO OBTAIN THE VERY LATEST,
DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE STATUS OF STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE U.S.,
PLEASE CONSULT THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER (RFC) HOMEPAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/RFC/RFC.PHP.

FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 03 - TUESDAY JUNE 09: THE EXPECTED MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 FEATURES BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT 500-HPA (RANGING FROM +60
TO +110 METERS) ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, AND ARE EXPECTED TO COINCIDE
WITH ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD FOR THAT REGION.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED MAY 21ST, INDICATES A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE (FROM 17.68 TO 15.16) IN THE PERCENTAGE OF THE CONUS IN
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2-D4).

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

$$



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