Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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000
FOPZ14 KNHC 280238
PWSEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016
0300 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

15N 140W       34  6   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

20N 140W       34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

15N 145W       34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

20N 145W       34  X   4( 4)  26(30)  38(68)   7(75)   X(75)   X(75)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  26(29)   6(35)   X(35)   X(35)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)

15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  42(46)  13(59)   1(60)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   6(19)   X(19)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)

25N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  29(30)  22(52)   2(54)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   X(15)
20N 151W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   3(23)
BUOY 51004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
BUOY 51004     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  25(29)   5(34)
20N 154W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)

15N 155W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   9(29)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
HILO           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   9(26)
BRADSHAW AAF   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   9(19)
18N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  10(25)
SOUTH POINT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
SOUTH POINT    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   7(19)
21N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  11(25)
KAILUA-KONA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   9(18)
KAHULUI        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)

BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   9(21)
HANA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)

BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)

HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)

JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)

LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

15N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)

NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

21N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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