Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

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000
FOPZ14 KNHC 012040
PWSEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

15N 145W       34  2  49(51)  24(75)   1(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)
15N 145W       50  X  12(12)  20(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
15N 145W       64  X   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

20N 145W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)

15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   8(13)   2(15)   X(15)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   9(28)   1(29)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  10(24)   2(26)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
20N 151W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   9(17)   2(19)

20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   2(14)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)

BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)

18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)

21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)

KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)

21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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