Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

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FOPZ14 KNHC 012032
PWSEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
2100 UTC WED OCT 01 2014

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   2(15)   X(15)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   X(13)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)

HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)

MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MANZANILLO     34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  19(27)  10(37)   1(38)   X(38)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   5(18)   1(19)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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