Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 291955
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 00Z MON MAR 30 2015 - 00Z THU APR 02 2015


DAYS 1-3...

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST MON-TUE...

TWO SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL RAISE THE THREAT FOR MAINLY LIGHT TO
MDT SNOW INVOF PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON MON AND
TUES. A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN
LAKES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE ERN LAKES/NORTHEAST SUN EVENING
THROUGH MON EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND
MID-UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... FOLLOWED BY SOME
LAKE-ENHANCED FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWS... ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKES ONTARIO/ERIE INTO THE FAVORED
HILLS/TERRAIN. ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM... A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL STRIPE OF LIGHT SNOWS ON TUES.
THE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN
MID-ATL REGION WITH A STRIPE OF SNOW OF UP TO AN INCH OR TWO FROM
NRN MI TO SRN NY/NRN PA. FOR BOTH SYSTEMS... WPC GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH JUST YIELDED HEAVY SNOW
PROBS NEAR THE TUG-HILL PLATEAU FOR MON.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
DOWNSTREAM ON TUES... AS A CONSIDERABLE DIP IN THE UPPER JET AND
LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHWEST.
THIS POTENT LARGE SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANIED THERMAL
ZONE WILL PRESS THROUGH THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON WED. THUS... THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST
TO RETURN FROM THE WA/OR CASCADES TO PARTS OF THE NRN
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF
THE GFS/ECMWF FOR HEAVY SNOW PROBS BOTH DAYS.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

MUSHER

$$




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