Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 020606
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
106 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 02/1200 UTC THRU MAR 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE CNTL/SRN ROCKIES...

THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING S/WV
ENERGY DROPPING QUICKLY SWD DOWN THE PAC COAST THIS PD WHICH HELPS
EJECT UPR LOW OUT ACRS SRN CA MON MRNG AND ACCELERATING IT AS AN
OPEN S/WV INTO WRN SD/WRN NEB BY TUES MRNG.  AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT ASSOCD HEIGHT FALLS AND ANOMALOUS PW AXIS AHEAD OF
IT TO SUPPORT A RATHER BROAD AREA OF MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
HIER ELEV SNOWS PARTICULARLY ACRS THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACRS THE SWD FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM AREA OF AZ AS WELL AS THE MTNS OF WRN CO INTO SRN WY.
 REASONABLY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY EXISTS IN THE MODELS HERE
THOUGH THE NAM SEEMS TO HOLD SOMEWHAT HIER QPF AMOUNTS BACK WEST
OF MODEL CONSENSUS ACRS THE GT BASIN..WHICH WAS DISCOUNTED.  AS A
RESULT...CHANGES FROM CONTINUITY AND THE NDFD WERE RELATIVELY
MINOR.  THE SUSTAINED MOIST SLY FLOW EARLY IN THE PD COULD LEAD TO
SOME RUNOFF ISSUES OVER THE MTNS OF WRN/CNTL AZ BEFORE SNOW LEVELS
GRADUALLY LOWER SECOND HALF OF THE PD. SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR
FURTHER WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

...ERN WY/WRN SD/NEB INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY

AS S/WV ENERGY FROM THE SW U.S. SHEARS RAPIDLY NEWD INTO WRN
SD/NEB BY TUES MRNG...EXPECT IT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE AREA OF
SNOWS ACRS PARTS OF ERN WY INTO SD/MN AS ASSOCD SFC LOW PRES DVLPS
OVER WRN NEB AND MOVES ENEWD.  TREND OF 00Z GFS AND NAM WAS TO
SHOW SLIGHT NWD ADJUSTMENT TO MDT PCPN AMOUNTS ACRS THIS AREA
WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN GEM.  THE 12Z EC AXIS WAS
SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED AND DRIER..BUT WENT WITH 00Z TRENDS HERE WITH
GENL .10 TO .25 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS.  SEE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER
WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

...ERN TX EWD ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SE U.S...

IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER HEAVY BAND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THAT DVLPD
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY..A SECONDARY SURGE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PWS
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE WRN GULF REGION AROUND 85H/7H
RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEX..AFFECTING MUCH OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE SE DURING THE DAY 1 PD.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND A
STRONG TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR ORGANIZED PCPN...THOUGH MODELS DO
SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
AS A RESULT..CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS IS RATHER LOW..AND LEANED A
BIT MORE TOWARD AN ENSEMBLE BLEND OF BOTH GLOBAL AND HI RES
GUIDANCE HERE...KEEPING HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF .50 TO 1 INCH AREAL AVG
CLOSE TO AXIS OF HIEST PWS AND WEAK INSTABILITY FROM THE UPR TX
COAST ACRS CNTL/SRN LA INTO SRN MS.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

LIGHT UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOWS ARE LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF WRN MT INTO
ID AS STG HEIGHT FALLS DIGG SWD ACRS WRN CANADA..BRINGING NEXT
ARCTIC COLD SURGE SWD ACRS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES LATE
MON MRNG.  MODELS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR HERE SO DID NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM GENL MODEL CONSENSUS OF .10 TO .25 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 549936 549928 548921 547913 545909 535893 533889 530888
      526888 522886 515887 511885 507885 485881 481879 475879
      467875 463873 457874 447874 428871 405873 398874 390880
      385885 383886 381884 377882 374880 373875 370866 366856
      367850 367842 368835 371829 377819 383811 389806 397800
      402793 403790 403787 400788 395789 391792 387792 384795
      377801 371806 369809 367810 366807 361800 358801 355799
      332772 329770 326770 321772 318776 317781 315794 316809
      317815 319820 320834 321838 321843 316851 311845 305848
      302855 300859 300864 299870 297875 298882 296887 296890
      295893 295899 293903 292908 290918 289925 287932 283941
      280946 277949 271957 268960 266964 263971 257978 254981
      253983 254988 257990 260992 261995 266002 275007 281010
      287010 292010 297011 305015 309013 312010 315007 320007
      324005 326001 330993 334984 341982 344980 354980 358978
      364978 376970 382966 391965 393964 396963 403963 408963
      413965 414973 414980 410993 408003 405015 403022 403029
      401035 401042 400048 395049 387048 381049 377047 373045
      367044 360047 353049 346051 337052 318045 308041 305040
      301041 297043 295044 294047 298048 303049 313055 316059
      315063 318067 319072 317076 311076 302077 291076 275071
      265070 259072 254073 253080 258086 261087 260091 256095
      254098 253105 247111 239115 235131 240138 251140 254139
      260139 265140 268138 279129 287127 291126 295127 290133
      285136 282140 280144 283147 289150 296152 304149 312148
      322146 327147 331146 336146 340149 346158 349159 352163
      357170 359180 352184 350186 348184 346175 345169 342165
      333161 323158 313155 308153 304153 304155 306159 309162
      304178 305183 308185 316190
 0.01 316190 320193 327195 334202 340207 344210 350212 359218
      364221 367216 362206 355198 356193 359193 361195 369199
      386209 395215 401217 403213 399208 397203 392198 388195
      378189 374187 372183 369182 370179 373177 377174 381172
      385173 385180 386182 389183 393184 395183 405177 407173
      411170 418161 421159 420154 421149 416147 408142 412138
      415133 418127 425127 430126 434123 438122 440124 438129
      435135 433141 433147 436153 441160 445168 446173 445178
      443184 442190 443199 447204 449202 454191 467174 469170
      474169 482174 488177 492180 501183 506182 512179 518181
      522184 525187 529185 531177 531168 528156 525147 522141
      518137 514132 512125 514119 517113 519096 518089 516082
      512081 508083 504086 502089 497095 493100 491102 489101
      486095 482092 476089 472085 470073 464062 462058 462050
      460038 461022 463007 464998 467991 469986 473981 476976
      481972 487972 491971 495974 497978 504983 507986 512987
      514989 517989 523989 529989 533984 533980 533974 536968
      541960 544956 546949 549936
 0.01 479691 478684 475681 469676 461669 452666 446668 442670
      436678 429685 427692 430696 434693 438690 441686 443682
      448682 453686 455693 455698 453700 447708 442709 439713
      438718 441721 437724 433726 430727 426730 422734 426736
      432734 436731 439730 441731 448730 447735 442737 438739
      435741 430745 428747 427746 422744 421752 429769 428776
      428781 426782 423779 422785 420791 419796 420799 422799
      425796 428784 430793 432790 442772 448761 449758 450750
      452744 456746 456739 457734 461729 463725 467712 470706
      473701 477697 479691
 0.01 460240 459236 455235 448235 439234 434236 428240 425246
      425250 428252 435252 441251 447250 453248 458242 460240
 0.01 457222 456219 451217 447218 442217 438218 435218 431219
      432224 433227 438229 442227 446226 449225 453223 457222
      457222
 0.01 430188 430187 428186 427186 425186 423188 422190 422193
      424194 424193 426192 426191 428190 430188 430188
 0.01 430171 429168 428165 426165 424167 422169 420171 419173
      417175 417178 419176 421176 425174 427173 429171 430171
 0.25 450974 448968 445967 443969 441976 439983 437990 436998
      437004 440002 443997 446990 448983 450976 450974
 0.25 445038 444035 440035 433035 429037 425042 420048 414052
      411053 406053 400055 393057 386059 381058 378057 377060
      371057 370056 371052 367052 363053 359053 356056 358059
      361060 362069 366072 369078 370087 369091 365091 360091
      358093 355097 354100 352104 350103 347097 341087 331077
      328076 327079 327090 326094 324097 319100 313098 313093
      312091 305088 297085 289087 284090 280096 276100 274108
      276113 288109 294109 297112 300115 304120 310124 307129
      311134 318136 323134 332133 341135 348138 352139 358142
      365142 382146 387151 391150 391146 389142 389137 389132
      392130 403127 409124 415121 420114 421110 421107 417105
      415102 414099 415094 418088 421084 431071 433063 435052
      436045 438041 443041 445038
 0.25 391107 392105 392103 391103 390102 388101 386101 385102
      384102 383103 381103 381104 379105 379108 380108 381110
      382111 383112 385112 387111 389109 391107 391107
 0.25 378110 377106 373106 371108 369110 367111 364112 362112
      362116 363117 367117 369117 371116 373112 375111 378110
 0.25 335174 336172 336169 335168 335167 334166 332166 330165
      329164 327164 325164 323164 322165 322167 323168 323169
      324171 325172 326172 327173 329174 331174 333174 335174
      335174
 0.25 345836 346833 346831 344829 342828 340828 338829 338830
      337832 337833 336834 337837 337839 338841 339843 339844
      341843 342843 343841 344840 344838 345836
 0.25 338058 337058 336057 334056 332056 330056 328056 327056
      325057 325059 326060 328061 330061 332061 334061 335060
      336060 337059 338058
 0.25 330896 331890 330885 329880 326876 324873 323870 321872
      319881 316888 311896 307901 304905 303909 301916 298926
      296935 295945 308949 308955 310957 313947 317928 319920
      323913 327906 329897 330896
 0.25 285985 285983 284982 283982 281982 280983 279983 277983
      275984 273986 272986 271986 272986 272989 273990 274991
      275991 277991 279990 281989 282988 284987 284986 285985
 0.25 261117 259116 257116 256115 254115 252115 251117 252118
      253118 255118 257117 259117 261117 261117
 0.50 425063 423059 419058 410059 404058 402062 398063 393062
      389063 386065 385072 383072 381069 379065 375063 372061
      368061 367065 369069 371072 372077 375086 377089 380090
      383090 385093 389095 391098 394101 397105 396096 396093
      400090 411082 417078 422069 425063
 0.50 408103 409100 409098 408096 406097 406098 406100 405102
      406104 407104 408103
 0.50 394117 394114 392113 389115 385118 381121 379121 378124
      376121 373122 368123 364120 361121 358119 354115 348110
      343100 342095 339091 334083 331083 331086 333090 335101
      330108 330113 331118 336126 339130 343132 347134 351134
      355131 360130 369133 374134 378130 381126 384126 392121
      394117
 0.50 322894 320892 318894 313901 310904 307907 304916 302926
      301935 303939 307938 310935 312931 315922 318913 320902
      322894
 1.00 413071 412068 410066 408065 407066 403067 405070 403071
      399070 397071 396076 399078 402076 404074 406073 410073
      412073 413071
 1.00 378078 379076 378074 378072 378071 377069 376068 376066
      375066 373066 373068 374071 374073 374074 374075 375078
      376079 377079 378078
 1.00 353122 352116 349114 346111 344107 341107 338112 336114
      338117 341118 345115 348119 350122 353122
 1.00 345125 344124 343123 342124 343125 344127 345125
 1.00 312918 312915 313913 313911 312910 310911 309911 308913
      308914 307916 306918 306919 306920 306922 305924 306926
      306928 306929 308928 309926 310925 310924 311922 312920
      312919 312918

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.