Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 210622
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 21/1200 UTC THRU APR 22/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE GT LAKES...

MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT 5H WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF SRN/CNTL PLAINS UPR TROF AS WELL AS SEPARATE NRN STREAM SYSTEM
TRACKING EWD ACRS SRN CANADA TOWARD THE NRN GT LAKES REGION MON
NIGHT/TUES MRNG. ALL SHOW NRN STREAM SYSTEM GAINING A BIT MORE
AMPLITUDE WITH TIME WHILE SRN STREAM S/WV IS FCST TO WEAKEN WITH
TIME IN FAVOR OF THE STGR NRN STREAM IMPULSE.  RATHER
WIDESPREAD..SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF BOTH SYSTEMS AS WEAK UPR FORCING ACTS UPON SRLY
RETURN MSTR AND RIBBON OF WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF ASSOCD COLD
FRONT.  HOWEVER WITH REGARD TO THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM...THE FACT
THAT THE UPR FORCING WEAKENS WITH TIME ALONG WITH VEERING OF 85H
FLOW TOWARD A MORE WLY DIRECTION..ALONG WITH LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE
GULF INFLOW SUPPORTS THE GENL CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
MOST AREAL AVG PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO MDT.  THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE THRU PARTS OF THE ERN TX AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WERE WEAK WAA PATRN DVLPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPR TROF
MON NIGHT THAT COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED HEAVIER CLUSTERS OF
TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN.  A COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM CONEST AND
CANADIAN GEM SUPPORT THIS IDEA..BUT HAVE TONED DOWN THE AMOUNTS A
BIT GIVEN RATHER WIDE MODEL SPREAD ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS MAY
OCCUR.  FARTHER N...THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A BAND
OF ORGANIZED SHWRS/TSTMS AHEAD OF DVLPG AREA OF LOW PRES ASSOCD
WITH NRN STREAM S/WV THAT HAS WEAK INSTABILITY AND DECENT RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT ACRS PARTS OF THE SRN GT LAKES
REGION..WHERE HAVE A STRIPE OF .25 TO .50 INCH RAINS.


...NRN/CNTL PACIFIC COASTS...

AN AMPLIFYING UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONTO THE CNTL/NRN PAC
COASTAL REGION BY TUES MRNG WITH MODELS GENLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/AMPLITUDE. BACKING OF
MID/UPR FLOW THRU THE PD AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD KEEP BULK OF PCPN
FOCUSED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF NRN CA INTO THE NRN SIERRA AND
CASCADES OF WA/OREGON WHILE BEST HEIGHT FALLS..7H UVVS..AND AXIS
OF HIER PWS..SUGGESTS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL DVLPG OVER PORTIONS OF
NRN CA INTO SW OREGON..WITH SW FACING MTN SLOPES FAVORED FOR
LOCALLY ENHANCED PCPN MAXIMA.  THE 12Z EC RUN SEEMED TO BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND GIVEN LESS WEIGHT HERE.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 519263 519253 518246 516227 515221 512214 511206 512203
      515205 517207 519206 521203 522198 517182 512169 507165
      503162 498165 492165 489167 485166 480170 474181 473184
      470184 468179 461180 457182 443183 440188 438189 435190
      428189 424191 414198 412202 410203 403204 398204 393201
      388197 381196 377196 375198 374201 375204 379209 381212
      379216 375218 373224 374230 373233 371235 366239 362244
      359250 356257 356261 363264 374260 385257 389257 391261
      396266 401269 407271 413272 419270 426269 427273 427276
      440276 448272 459268 468263 481260 486259 489256 492257
      495259 501262 506263 512263 519263
 0.01 531939 532927 531915 528899 529890 528880 527868 527855
      529840 528831 526824 526815 523806 521800 519790 519778
      518773 515775 505781 500784 494784 488782 481780 481770
      481762 481754 481744 478729 476723 475717 472715 461712
      459711 458713 455718 451724 449730 443746 439758 435769
      421789 417793 411797 401804 389810 383813 380814 378818
      366835 359846 353856 347868 346875 343880 341887 338893
      330905 323914 316924 307945 302958 297970 292985 290992
      288999 287005 289010 291016 296016 296021 294023 296027
      299030 305028 308028 309025 313020 318009 324995 326989
      328985 331982 333981 335982 340985 351989 358989 361987
      364986 367987 369990 378979 382975 384973 386975 388977
      392977 397976 404973 409968 414964 419961 424954 428940
      430938 430934 433926 436911 445902 450898 455893 460889
      463883 467878 469877 472877 481884 483887 481889 478895
      474898 472905 470911 469915 469920 470927 476927 480923
      485920 492924 497928 500935 502942 506952 509957 512957
      514960 520960 523960 525958 527954 530947 530942 531939
 0.01 485849 483847 480844 478842 478840 476835 474833 473838
      471840 470843 470848 473850 475852 478852 482851 485849
 0.01 451171 452166 449160 446157 444155 442152 442149 440146
      438144 436148 434152 435157 438161 442164 445165 448168
      451171 451171
 0.01 454115 451109 451105 453103 452100 448097 443098 438097
      435095 429091 428089 427094 431099 432102 431105 428108
      433110 442111 448116 453115 454115
 0.01 396113 394112 392112 390114 387115 385115 381117 379119
      383120 385118 388118 390117 392115 394114 396113
 0.01 398846 398844 398841 396840 395840 393842 391843 390845
      388847 388849 389852 389854 389856 390858 392858 394858
      396858 397855 397853 397851 397848 398846
 0.01 392075 392073 392071 391068 389066 387068 387070 388072
      389073 390075 392075 392075
 0.01 393055 393050 388049 379049 374042 367038 362038 358040
      353046 350048 345050 338053 332053 328055 326057 328060
      347057 352058 357060 362067 364066 370067 372071 374075
      377078 378075 379069 377064 376060 378055 386054 389051
      392052 393055
 0.01 369736 368727 365724 362724 359723 356725 353726 351729
      347736 344743 343750 344755 346757 355755 360752 365746
      367742 368739 369736
 0.01 343100 342098 342097 340096 340095 338093 338095 338097
      338098 339100 340100 341101 343101 343100
 0.25 502241 504233 502229 499224 496223 492224 491219 491216
      489213 486212 481211 478213 474214 473218 481219 487220
      489222 494230 492236 494239 497242 500243 502241
 0.25 515817 515814 515811 514809 514806 514804 512801 510802
      509804 509807 509810 510812 510815 511817 513819 514817
      515817
 0.25 515900 516893 514888 511879 512873 511867 511860 510854
      507853 505854 502858 501862 499866 499870 498877 499883
      501887 503890 506898 510903 514903 515900
 0.25 481247 483242 482239 480236 478233 474234 473236 472239
      469240 467242 468245 470247 474248 477248 479248 481247
 0.25 463249 463248 462246 460247 459247 458247 457247 455247
      454248 453249 452250 452251 454252 456252 457252 458251
      459251 461250 463249 463249
 0.25 462223 459219 454216 449212 445211 435214 426211 424217
      420221 416219 412215 406213 400209 390205 387205 387210
      391214 395218 399221 404224 406226 404229 401233 398238
      397243 400249 405252 407258 410261 415262 425259 429258
      434254 441249 457236 462223
 0.25 468756 467752 465748 459744 452757 445773 438785 434792
      432801 428819 426827 425838 425846 423855 424861 428861
      431859 433858 434860 431868 429876 426884 421890 419893
      420898 423900 427899 433895 437887 442873 446865 450857
      454842 463807 464797 464787 463779 467772 468756
 0.25 398915 395907 393902 390899 386898 382899 374901 369902
      367905 361911 358918 353923 347929 344930 344924 347917
      348914 348908 344907 341909 334913 330919 326926 321933
      317940 314948 310956 307963 306968 305974 301990 300994
      303993 308986 317973 321966 324963 328965 335964 345963
      351960 360957 371947 378943 381943 385945 391945 395937
      397924 398915
 0.50 447224 447220 443220 438221 427221 424222 424223 427228
      427235 423238 417234 412233 408237 411242 413248 417253
      421254 426253 431239 439233 444227 447224
 0.50 460798 460791 459786 455781 451787 449795 446803 444812
      443822 443828 445831 448835 450832 453825 457818 459809
      460799 460798
 0.50 413224 413223 413221 411220 410221 410223 411224 412224
      413224
 0.50 372929 372922 368922 361927 355934 350938 343943 338945
      336949 341949 350946 356946 359944 365938 371932 372929
 0.50 336936 336930 332929 328931 326934 323939 322943 321947
      323951 327948 330946 333943 335939 336936

$$




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