Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 291827
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
FLZ000-GAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/29/15 1826Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1815Z  JS
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LOCATION...W CENT TO N CENT AND NE FLORIDA/S CENT AND SE GEORGIA...
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ATTN WFOS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...
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NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT.  APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
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EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES/MESO-ANALYSIS DISCUSSION LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE OVERALL PICTURE SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF
WELL DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY MID/UPPER CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE CENT GULF
COAST STATES WITH FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM DIVERGENCE ALOFT STRETCHING FROM
THE E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENT TO NE FL PER RECENT CIMSS/NOAA-NSSL WIND
DIVERGENCE PRODUCT. AT THE SFC, SEEING WESTWARD EXTENSION OF OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL WITH CURRENT AREA OF ANALYZED MAX SFC BASED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE-GAINSVILLE-DAYTONA
BEACH, THOUGH VERY MODEST CONVERGENCE ALSO IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA AIDED BY THE INLAND ADVANCING ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE AND BY SOME APPARENT SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH GREATER LOWER LEVEL SE
INFLOW SPREADING NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO S AND SE FL LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF ERIKA. MICROWAVE DATA AND A BIT MORE CURRENT GOES
SOUNDER/BLENDED TPW DATA REVEAL A SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE NW
ENTERING S FL FROM WHAT`S LEFT OF ERIKA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 2" ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND OVER 2.25" IN THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER AXIS
OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF AXIS
OVER NE FL EXTENDING TO THE SW OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO WHERE PW
VALUES OF 2" AND HIGHER ARE PRESENT.
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OUTLOOK...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WILL BE WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL
VERY SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS N FL INTO S GA WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED
FURTHER BY THE INLAND PROPAGATING ATLANTIC BREEZE AND GENERAL GREATER
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STORM MOTIONS
HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW WITH THE CONVECTIVE BAND BOTH OFFSHORE OVER THE
E GULF AND THE INLAND EXTENSION OVER N FL/S GA DUE TO THE VIRTUALLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALIGNING ITSELF PARALLEL TO THE N-S
ORIENTATION OF THE BANDS. RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WITH LOCALIZED RATES TO AT
LEAST 2-3"/HR IF NOT HIGHER WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THE MOIST
PROFILES WITH RECENT VERIFICATION SEEN IN OBSERVATION FROM VALDOSTA GA
(KVLD) WHERE 1.51" FELL IN WELL UNDER AN HOUR. THE SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND
EVEN SOME CELL MERGERS OVER N FL/S GA CAN EASILY RESULT IN LOCALIZED 3-4"
TOTALS. FARTHER TO THE S, ALSO SEE SOME POTENTIAL TOWARD CENT-W CENT FL
WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE FL PENINSULA JUST E OF VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE W COAST OF  FL
WILL EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH THE INLAND ADVANCING ATLANTIC BREEZE AND
SPEED CONVERGENCE FROM THE GREATER LOW LEVEL SE  FLOW NOW ENTERING S
FL. LITTLE TO NO CINH IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA AND SB
CAPES HAVE BEEN  RISING INTO THE 3000-4000J/KG RANGE PER GOES SOUNDER INFO
SO INSTABILITY WILL ALSO NOT BE AN ISSUE. EXPECT LOCALIZED VERY INTENSE
RAIN RATES TO AT LEAST 2-3"/HR WITH PERIOD OF SLOWER CELL MOTIONS AS WELL
RESULTING FROM THE CONVERGENCE IN SPOTS OF W CENT FL GIVEN THESE FACTORS.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3136 8318 3064 8146 2913 8125 2737 8200 2692 8348
2936 8361 3073 8387
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