Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 010259
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/01/14 0258Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0245Z
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LOCATION...S VIRGINIA/CENT AND W NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA/FAR
NE GEORGIA...
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ATTN WFOS...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
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EVENT...UPDATING EARLIER SPENES MESSAGES CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN EVENT
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0300-0900Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...
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FOR E SC...CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
REGENERATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS FOCUSING PRIMARILY ON COASTAL
SC. THE BACKING MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PER WATER VAPOR ANIMATION AND THE
WAVE WHICH HAS FORMED ALONG THE GA/SC COAST HAS NOW TAPPED INTO THE OLD
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE INLAND
OVER SC/FAR S NC AND TOWARD THE PIEDMONT AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS. INTERESTINGLY, THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CHARLESTON SC APPEARS
TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR MAINLY BETWEEN 700-500MB
WHICH IS ALSO SOMEWHAT EVIDENT IN THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT WITH RELATIVE
PW MINIMUM ALONG THE GA-S CENT CA COASTAL REGION. THIS MID LEVEL DRIER
AIR MAY BE AIDING THE INSTABILITY AXIS FARTHER TO THE N ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG COASTAL SC EVEN WELL AFTER
SUNSET. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY, BELIEVE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE INLAND WITH AXIS
ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFTING ITS FOCUS FARTHER TO THE N AS LLJ VEERS TO MORE
SOUTHERLY AND UPSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER AL/GA MOVES BY. AS
A RESULT, SEE NO REASON FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO DIMINISH IN
THIS REGION.
.
FOR AREA FROM NE GA TO EXTREME S CENT VA...A COMBINATION OF STRATIFORM
RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED LOWER TOPPED SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT ITS FOCUS FARTHER TO THE N AND NE OVERNIGHT FOR A
BROAD AREA STRETCHING FROM EXTREME NE GA/NW SC TO THE S CENT VA-N CENT
NC BORDER REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE UPSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING FROM AL INTO GA, SEE ADDITIONAL SMALLER IMPULSES IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH ALONG
WITH THE VEERING SE TO S LOW LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SUPPORT
FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. RAINFALL EFFICIENCY SHOULD
BE HIGH WITH RATHER SATURATED PROFILES PRESENT WHICH IS NOTED IN THE 00Z
GSO SOUNDING THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME INITIAL MITIGATION OF THE OVERALL
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT DUE TO THE LACK OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. HOWEVER, A BIT LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES, STILL EXPECT SOME THREAT FOR AN UPTICK IN RAIN RATES ALONG AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE APPROXIMATE AXIS ROUGHLY FROM NW SC (INVOF KGSP)
ACROSS S CENT-W CENT NC NEAR AND W OF CHARLOTTE NC TO CLOSE TO THE NC-VA
BORDER REGION (NEAR DANVILLE VA).
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
.
FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3664 7908 3579 7877 3475 7889 3335 7903 3289 7962
3376 8051 3426 8253 3475 8344 3588 8129
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NNNN


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