Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 231320
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0620 MST Tuesday, December 23, 2014

This forecast is for Tuesday, December 23, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 35.3 F/1.8 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 302 ft/min (1.5 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 11062 ft MSL (6223 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 37.0 F/3.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1230 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 5169 ft MSL (330 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 12/24.... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:30:39 / 16:56:05 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 25 min 26 sec (565 min 26 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:13:22 MST... 27.53 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 12/23/2014 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 10635 ft MSL (5796 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 10679 ft MSL (5839 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +16.0
K index......................... -3.3

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -54.2 -65.6   335   62   32  -5.4  -3.0  112.3 234.2    62.2      M    M
 45000  -52.3 -62.1   335   90   46   4.4   2.4   90.5 194.9    53.3      M    M
 40000  -51.5 -60.7   340  137   70   1.7   0.9   68.5 155.4    42.7      M    M
 38000  -48.8 -55.8   340  137   70   4.1   2.2   62.6 144.6    40.0      M    M
 36000  -45.1 -49.2   340  142   73   0.4   0.2   59.3 138.7    38.8      M    M
 34000  -44.3 -47.7   340  140   72  -1.3  -0.7   52.1 125.8    34.7      M    M
 32000  -43.1 -45.6   345  133   68   4.1   2.3   45.5 113.9    30.8      M    M
 30000  -41.9 -43.4   350  126   65   3.3   1.8   39.2 102.6    27.0      M    M
 29000  -41.2 -42.2   350  130   67   2.0   1.1   36.2  97.2    25.1      M    M
 28000  -39.5 -39.1   350  136   70   8.3   4.5   34.5  94.2    24.1      M    M
 27000  -37.0 -34.6   355  142   73   8.2   4.5   34.1  93.3    24.0      M    M
 26000  -37.2 -35.0   355  148   76  -2.4  -1.3   30.0  86.0    21.2      M    M
 25000  -35.5 -31.9   360  155   80   0.7   0.4   28.4  83.2    20.2      M    M
 24000  -33.1 -27.6   355  152   78   9.0   4.9   27.7  81.9    19.9      M    M
 23000  -30.5 -22.9   355  150   77   9.0   4.9   27.4  81.4    19.9      M    M
 22000  -29.9 -21.8   355  135   69   4.5   2.4   24.6  76.2    17.8      M    M
 21000  -28.2 -18.8   355  118   61   4.2   2.3   23.0  73.4    16.7      M    M
 20000  -28.2 -18.8   355   96   50  -6.6  -3.6   18.7  65.6    13.4      M    M
 19500  -29.0 -20.2   355   86   44  -6.0  -3.3   15.9  60.7    11.1      M    M
 19000  -29.6 -21.3   355   76   39   1.2   0.7   13.5  56.4     9.1      M    M
 18500  -29.0 -20.2   355   66   34   2.4   1.3   12.5  54.4     8.3      M    M
 18000  -29.3 -20.7   355   56   29  -4.1  -2.2   10.5  50.9     6.6      M    M
 17500  -29.3 -20.7   355   49   25   2.3   1.2    8.8  47.8     5.2      M    M
 17000  -28.7 -19.7   355   42   21   7.6   4.1    7.8  46.1     4.4      M    M
 16500  -27.5 -17.5   350   39   20   7.5   4.1    7.4  45.4     4.0      M    M
 16000  -26.4 -15.5   350   36   18   7.5   4.1    7.1  44.7     3.7      M    M
 15500  -25.3 -13.5   350   33   17   7.3   4.0    6.6  44.0     3.4      M    M
 15000  -24.2 -11.6   350   30   16   7.6   4.1    6.2  43.2     3.0      M    M
 14500  -23.3  -9.9   350   28   14   5.0   2.7    5.7  42.2     2.5      M    M
 14000  -22.6  -8.7   350   25   13   5.0   2.8    4.9  40.8     1.8      M    M
 13500  -21.7  -7.1   355   26   13   8.0   4.4    4.2  39.5     1.1      M    M
 13000  -20.3  -4.5   360   27   14   9.5   5.2    4.1  39.4     1.1      M    M
 12500  -18.9  -2.0   005   29   15   9.6   5.3    4.1  39.4     1.1      M    M
 12000  -17.4   0.7   010   30   15   9.7   5.3    4.1  39.4     1.1      M    M
 11500  -16.1   3.0   015   33   17   5.9   3.3    3.9  39.1     0.9      M    M
 11000  -15.7   3.7   015   36   19   6.7   3.7    2.9  37.2    -0.1    499  2.5
 10500  -14.2   6.4   010   33   17  10.8   5.9    2.9  37.3    -0.1    438  2.2
 10250  -13.4   7.9   010   31   16   7.1   3.9    3.0  37.3    -0.0    408  2.1
 10000  -13.1   8.4   005   30   15   3.6   2.0    2.5  36.5    -0.5    392  2.0
  9750  -12.7   9.1   015   20   10   8.0   4.4    2.2  36.0    -0.8    372  1.9
  9500  -12.0  10.4   010   17    9   9.7   5.3    2.2  35.9    -0.8    344  1.7
  9250  -11.3  11.7   005   14    7   9.2   5.1    2.2  35.9    -0.9    315  1.6
  9000  -10.6  12.9   360   11    6   9.4   5.1    2.1  35.9    -0.9    287  1.5
  8750   -9.9  14.2   360    9    5   9.3   5.1    2.1  35.8    -0.9    259  1.3
  8500   -9.2  15.4   005    7    4   9.3   5.1    2.1  35.8    -0.9    231  1.2
  8250   -8.5  16.7   015    5    3   9.3   5.1    2.1  35.7    -1.0    202  1.0
  8000   -7.8  18.0   030    3    2   9.3   5.1    2.0  35.7    -1.0    174  0.9
  7750   -7.1  19.2   060    2    1   9.3   5.1    2.0  35.6    -1.0    146  0.7
  7500   -6.4  20.5   100    2    1   9.3   5.1    2.0  35.5    -1.1    117  0.6
  7250   -5.7  21.7   125    3    2   9.3   5.1    1.9  35.5    -1.1     89  0.5
  7000   -5.0  23.0   140    5    2   9.3   5.1    1.9  35.4    -1.2     61  0.3
  6750   -4.3  24.3   140    5    3   9.3   5.1    1.9  35.3    -1.2     32  0.2
  6500   -3.7  25.3   135    5    3   9.3   5.1    1.8  35.3    -1.3      4  0.0
  6250   -3.0  26.6   135    5    3   9.4   5.2    1.8  35.2    -1.3      M    M
  6000   -2.3  27.9   130    5    3   9.1   5.0    1.7  35.1    -1.3      M    M
  5750   -1.6  29.1   130    4    2  10.4   5.7    1.7  35.1    -1.4      M    M
  5500   -0.9  30.4   135    3    1   3.7   2.0    1.6  34.9    -1.5      M    M
  5250   -1.1  30.0   155    1    1  -4.0  -2.2    0.7  33.3    -2.4      M    M
  5000   -1.2  29.8   225    1    0   2.3   1.3   -0.1  31.8    -3.3      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           12/23/2014 at 0800 MST          |       12/23/2014 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -6.6  LI... +9.3                | K index... -13.5  LI... +12.0
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.0 -68.8  345  70 36   2.0   1.1 | -56.4 -69.5  345  68 35   3.0   1.6
 45000 -53.0 -63.4  350 103 53   2.6   1.4 | -51.9 -61.4  360  98 50   3.2   1.7
 40000 -47.6 -53.7  345 116 60   3.6   2.0 | -46.8 -52.2  350 109 56   3.4   1.9
 38000 -46.2 -51.2  345 119 62   0.0   0.0 | -45.8 -50.4  350 113 58  -1.0  -0.5
 36000 -46.1 -51.0  345 119 61   0.0   0.0 | -46.4 -51.5  350 116 60  -1.0  -0.5
 34000 -46.1 -51.0  345 119 61   0.5   0.3 | -47.0 -52.6  350 118 61   0.2   0.1
 32000 -45.5 -49.9  355 116 60   1.1   0.6 | -46.3 -51.3  355 117 60   1.1   0.6
 30000 -44.8 -48.6  360 114 59   3.4   1.9 | -45.7 -50.3  360 116 60   4.1   2.3
 29000 -42.9 -45.2  360 116 60   6.5   3.6 | -43.7 -46.7  360 114 59   6.6   3.6
 28000 -41.0 -41.8  360 118 61   6.5   3.6 | -41.7 -43.1  360 112 58   6.6   3.6
 27000 -39.0 -38.2  360 119 61   6.5   3.6 | -39.7 -39.5  005 110 56   6.6   3.6
 26000 -37.1 -34.8  360 119 62   6.4   3.5 | -37.7 -35.9  005 108 55   7.0   3.8
 25000 -35.2 -31.4  360 118 61   6.4   3.5 | -35.6 -32.1  005 106 54   7.0   3.8
 24000 -33.3 -27.9  360 116 60   6.4   3.5 | -33.5 -28.3  005 104 54   7.1   3.9
 23000 -31.1 -24.0  360 113 58   8.2   4.5 | -31.1 -24.0  360 101 52   9.4   5.1
 22000 -28.7 -19.7  360 107 55   8.2   4.5 | -28.3 -18.9  360  98 50   9.4   5.2
 21000 -26.2 -15.2  360 102 52   8.3   4.5 | -24.7 -12.5  360  93 48   7.8   4.3
 20000 -24.9 -12.8  360  91 47   1.0   0.6 | -23.5 -10.3  360  89 46   3.5   1.9
 19500 -24.7 -12.5  360  85 44   1.1   0.6 | -23.0  -9.4  360  86 44   3.5   1.9
 19000 -24.5 -12.1  360  80 41   1.1   0.6 | -22.4  -8.3  360  84 43   3.5   1.9
 18500 -24.4 -11.9  360  74 38   1.3   0.7 | -21.9  -7.4  360  81 42   3.2   1.7
 18000 -24.4 -11.9  360  68 35  -1.3  -0.7 | -21.8  -7.2  360  76 39  -1.2  -0.7
 17500 -24.6 -12.3  360  62 32  -1.1  -0.6 | -21.9  -7.4  360  69 35  -0.8  -0.5
 17000 -24.7 -12.5  360  55 29  -0.5  -0.3 | -22.1  -7.8  360  61 32  -2.3  -1.2
 16500 -24.7 -12.5  360  49 25  -0.1  -0.0 | -22.5  -8.5  005  54 28  -2.3  -1.3
 16000 -24.8 -12.6  360  42 22   1.5   0.8 | -22.9  -9.2  005  47 24   0.1   0.1
 15500 -24.2 -11.6  360  36 18   4.1   2.3 | -22.5  -8.5  005  43 22   2.5   1.3
 15000 -23.6 -10.5  355  30 15   4.9   2.7 | -22.1  -7.8  010  39 20   3.3   1.8
 14500 -22.6  -8.7  350  28 14   8.1   4.5 | -21.5  -6.7  010  36 19   4.9   2.7
 14000 -21.4  -6.5  350  27 14   8.1   4.4 | -20.8  -5.4  010  33 17   4.9   2.7
 13500 -20.1  -4.2  350  27 14   9.3   5.1 | -20.0  -4.0  010  32 16   5.1   2.8
 13000 -18.8  -1.8  355  29 15   9.1   5.0 | -19.3  -2.7  010  30 15   5.4   2.9
 12500 -17.5   0.5  360  30 15   7.8   4.3 | -18.4  -1.1  010  29 15   6.6   3.6
 12000 -16.3   2.7  005  31 16   7.7   4.2 | -17.5   0.5  005  28 15   7.0   3.8
 11500 -15.3   4.5  015  32 17   6.4   3.5 | -16.2   2.8  015  28 14   8.6   4.7
 11000 -14.3   6.3  020  34 17   6.3   3.5 | -15.0   5.0  020  29 15   7.7   4.2
 10500 -13.4   7.9  025  35 18   5.8   3.2 | -14.0   6.8  025  30 15   6.3   3.4
 10250 -13.0   8.6  030  36 18   6.8   3.7 | -13.5   7.7  030  31 16   6.4   3.5
 10000 -12.5   9.5  030  36 19   3.2   1.7 | -13.1   8.4  030  31 16   5.6   3.1
  9750 -12.4   9.7  030  36 19   4.1   2.3 | -12.7   9.1  030  31 16   6.0   3.3
  9500 -11.9  10.6  030  35 18   8.4   4.6 | -12.2  10.0  030  29 15   6.9   3.8
  9250 -11.3  11.7  030  35 18   7.2   3.9 | -11.7  10.9  030  27 14   6.7   3.7
  9000 -10.8  12.6  030  34 17   6.0   3.3 | -11.2  11.8  030  25 13   6.8   3.7
  8750 -10.4  13.3  030  32 16   6.2   3.4 | -10.7  12.7  030  23 12   7.2   4.0
  8500  -9.9  14.2  030  30 15   7.5   4.1 | -10.1  13.8  030  21 11   7.8   4.3
  8250  -9.4  15.1  030  27 14   7.4   4.0 |  -9.6  14.7  030  18  9   7.5   4.1
  8000  -8.8  16.2  030  25 13   7.5   4.1 |  -9.0  15.8  030  16  8   7.1   3.9
  7750  -8.3  17.1  030  22 12   7.6   4.2 |  -8.5  16.7  030  14  7   7.6   4.2
  7500  -7.7  18.1  030  20 10   7.7   4.2 |  -7.9  17.8  030  12  6   8.5   4.7
  7250  -7.2  19.0  030  18  9   7.3   4.0 |  -7.3  18.9  025  10  5   8.9   4.9
  7000  -6.6  20.1  030  16  8   7.2   4.0 |  -6.6  20.1  025   9  5   9.0   4.9
  6750  -6.1  21.0  030  13  7   7.0   3.8 |  -5.9  21.4  030   8  4   8.9   4.9
  6500  -5.6  21.9  030  12  6   6.8   3.7 |  -5.3  22.5  030   8  4   9.6   5.3
  6250  -5.1  22.8  030   9  5   6.8   3.8 |  -4.5  23.9  030   7  4  10.4   5.7
  6000  -4.6  23.7  030   7  4   7.1   3.9 |  -3.7  25.3  030   6  3   9.7   5.3
  5750  -4.1  24.6  025   5  2   6.0   3.3 |  -2.9  26.8  030   6  3  12.8   7.0
  5500  -3.8  25.2  025   4  2   3.4   1.9 |  -1.7  28.9  030   6  3  19.6  10.8
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           12/23/2014 at 1400 MST          |       12/23/2014 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -20.1  LI... +14.0              | K index... -26.1  LI... +14.7
CAPE... +6.8  CIN... -3.6                  | CAPE... +7.3  CIN... -1.2
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.6 -69.9  345  62 32   3.8   2.1 | -58.2 -72.8  340  67 35   3.9   2.1
 45000 -50.9 -59.6  360  79 41   3.1   1.7 | -52.4 -62.3  350  82 42   3.1   1.7
 40000 -47.0 -52.6  345 110 56   2.6   1.4 | -48.5 -55.3  345 108 55   2.6   1.4
 38000 -46.7 -52.1  345 117 60  -2.6  -1.4 | -48.5 -55.3  345 112 58  -3.2  -1.7
 36000 -48.3 -54.9  350 115 59  -2.6  -1.4 | -50.4 -58.7  350 108 56  -3.2  -1.8
 34000 -49.7 -57.5  350 114 59   2.0   1.1 | -51.9 -61.4  360 106 55   5.4   3.0
 32000 -47.4 -53.3  355 112 58   3.9   2.1 | -48.4 -55.1  360 103 53   5.8   3.2
 30000 -45.0 -49.0  360 110 57   5.9   3.2 | -44.7 -48.5  360 101 52   7.5   4.1
 29000 -43.0 -45.4  005 108 55   6.4   3.5 | -42.5 -44.5  360  99 51   7.4   4.1
 28000 -41.1 -42.0  005 105 54   6.5   3.5 | -40.3 -40.5  360  98 50   7.4   4.1
 27000 -39.2 -38.6  005 102 53   6.4   3.5 | -38.0 -36.4  360  97 50   7.5   4.1
 26000 -37.0 -34.6  005  99 51   7.5   4.1 | -35.9 -32.6  360  94 48   7.1   3.9
 25000 -34.8 -30.6  005  96 50   7.5   4.1 | -33.8 -28.8  360  91 47   7.1   3.9
 24000 -32.5 -26.5  005  93 48   7.5   4.1 | -31.6 -24.9  360  88 45   7.1   3.9
 23000 -30.3 -22.5  005  92 47   7.7   4.2 | -29.4 -20.9  360  86 44   7.6   4.2
 22000 -27.4 -17.3  005  91 47   7.8   4.3 | -27.2 -17.0  005  85 44   7.6   4.2
 21000 -25.0 -13.0  005  90 47   7.8   4.3 | -24.3 -11.7  005  83 43   7.7   4.2
 20000 -22.7  -8.9  005  87 45   7.7   4.2 | -22.0  -7.6  005  80 41   7.7   4.2
 19500 -21.5  -6.7  360  86 44   7.7   4.2 | -20.9  -5.6  005  79 41   7.7   4.2
 19000 -20.4  -4.7  360  84 43   7.7   4.2 | -19.7  -3.5  005  78 40   7.6   4.2
 18500 -19.2  -2.6  360  83 43   6.7   3.7 | -18.6  -1.5  005  76 39   6.5   3.5
 18000 -18.6  -1.5  360  80 41   2.8   1.5 | -17.8  -0.0  005  74 38   4.4   2.4
 17500 -18.2  -0.8  360  77 39   3.4   1.9 | -17.2   1.0  005  71 37   4.5   2.5
 17000 -18.0  -0.4  360  72 37  -1.9  -1.1 | -16.6   2.1  005  69 35   3.6   2.0
 16500 -18.3  -0.9  360  66 34  -2.2  -1.2 | -16.0   3.2  005  66 34   3.7   2.0
 16000 -18.6  -1.5  005  59 31  -3.2  -1.7 | -15.5   4.1  005  64 33   0.5   0.3
 15500 -19.2  -2.6  005  51 26  -3.8  -2.1 | -15.7   3.7  005  59 30  -0.8  -0.5
 15000 -19.8  -3.6  005  43 22  -3.1  -1.7 | -15.8   3.6  005  54 28  -2.0  -1.1
 14500 -20.1  -4.2  010  39 20  -0.9  -0.5 | -16.3   2.7  005  47 24  -3.7  -2.0
 14000 -20.3  -4.5  010  35 18  -0.2  -0.1 | -16.9   1.6  005  41 21  -3.7  -2.0
 13500 -20.0  -4.0  010  32 17   3.3   1.8 | -17.4   0.7  005  36 19  -3.3  -1.8
 13000 -19.6  -3.3  010  30 16   3.9   2.1 | -18.0  -0.4  005  32 16  -1.9  -1.1
 12500 -18.6  -1.5  010  28 15   8.2   4.5 | -17.7   0.1  005  28 14   3.8   2.1
 12000 -17.4   0.7  010  26 14   8.0   4.4 | -17.3   0.9  005  24 13   4.5   2.4
 11500 -16.2   2.8  010  25 13   8.1   4.5 | -16.3   2.7  005  22 11   7.5   4.1
 11000 -15.0   5.0  010  23 12   7.9   4.4 | -15.2   4.6  005  19 10   7.7   4.2
 10500 -13.9   7.0  015  22 11   7.5   4.1 | -14.0   6.8  010  17  9   8.3   4.5
 10250 -13.3   8.1  020  22 11   7.7   4.2 | -13.4   7.9  015  16  8   8.3   4.6
 10000 -12.8   9.0  020  21 11   6.4   3.5 | -12.8   9.0  015  15  8   7.3   4.0
  9750 -12.3   9.9  025  20 10   7.0   3.9 | -12.3   9.9  015  15  8   7.8   4.3
  9500 -11.7  10.9  020  18  9   8.7   4.8 | -11.6  11.1  020  15  8   9.1   5.0
  9250 -11.1  12.0  020  17  9   8.1   4.4 | -11.0  12.2  025  14  7   8.5   4.7
  9000 -10.5  13.1  020  15  8   7.4   4.1 | -10.4  13.3  025  14  7   7.5   4.1
  8750 -10.0  14.0  020  14  7   7.9   4.4 |  -9.8  14.4  025  13  7   8.2   4.5
  8500  -9.3  15.3  020  12  6   8.9   4.9 |  -9.2  15.4  020  12  6   9.5   5.2
  8250  -8.7  16.3  015  10  5   8.6   4.7 |  -8.5  16.7  020  11  5   8.8   4.8
  8000  -8.1  17.4  015   9  5   8.3   4.5 |  -7.8  18.0  020  10  5   8.5   4.6
  7750  -7.5  18.5  015   9  4   8.9   4.9 |  -7.2  19.0  015   9  4   8.7   4.8
  7500  -6.8  19.8  015   8  4   9.8   5.4 |  -6.6  20.1  015   8  4   8.7   4.8
  7250  -6.0  21.2  015   7  4  10.1   5.5 |  -5.9  21.4  015   7  4   8.4   4.6
  7000  -5.3  22.5  015   7  4  10.1   5.5 |  -5.3  22.5  015   6  3   8.3   4.6
  6750  -4.5  23.9  020   7  3  10.1   5.5 |  -4.7  23.5  020   5  3   8.5   4.6
  6500  -3.8  25.2  020   6  3  10.1   5.5 |  -4.0  24.8  020   4  2   8.9   4.9
  6250  -3.0  26.6  020   6  3  10.3   5.7 |  -3.4  25.9  030   3  2   8.8   4.8
  6000  -2.2  28.0  020   5  3   9.7   5.3 |  -2.7  27.1  040   2  1   9.5   5.2
  5750  -1.5  29.3  020   5  3  12.4   6.8 |  -2.0  28.4  055   1  1   8.7   4.8
  5500  -0.3  31.5  015   5  3  18.7  10.2 |  -1.5  29.3  055   1  1   4.7   2.6
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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