Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 260729
SWODY3
SPC AC 260728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER IMPULSE ORIGINATING OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL MOVE NWD
AND PHASE WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND
REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PROGRESS SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A STRONG MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN...MAINTAINING A BELT OF MODERATE NWLY FLOW
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO OK AND THE WRN OZARK PLATEAU...
A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST
OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE SRN PLAINS...AND FEATURE A SERIES OF
WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. A CORRIDOR OF UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS KS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN WY...N OF A W-E
BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK OR SRN KS. STRONG CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BOTH
NEAR/E OF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO PARTS OF KS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INTO NRN OK AND WRN
PORTIONS OF MO/AR OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE SEASONABLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT
AND ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A SLIGHT RISK WILL
PROBABLY BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS ACROSS PARTS OF THIS
REGION...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY EXISTS IN MESOSCALE DETAILS
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
A BOUNDARY INITIALLY OVER SRN VA EARLY THU MORNING IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 70S F DEWPOINTS SPREADING ACROSS
VA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING OUT OF THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES IN DEPICTING THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE /GENERALLY BETWEEN 30-50 KT
AT 500 MB/. RICH PW ENVIRONMENT /NEAR 2 INCHES/ COMBINED WITH THE
MODERATE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NRN NC INTO VA LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH BOTH
TIMING OF THE SPEED MAX AND STRENGTH OF FLOW ALOFT
UNCERTAIN...SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION WILL BE DEFERRED UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS OF STRONG CONVECTION.

..ROGERS.. 07/26/2016

$$



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