Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 060731
SWODY3
SPC AC 060729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2016

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW...WITHIN A SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF SPLIT MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OR
REDEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.  THIS MAY OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO
THE CONTINUING PROGRESSION OF A NUMBER OF SMALLER- SCALE
PERTURBATIONS AROUND ITS PERIPHERY...AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE DIGGING INLAND ACROSS
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...TOWARD THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES.  THE
MANNER IN WHICH THIS OCCURS...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE
EMBEDDED SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES...IS A POINT OF MODEL VARIABILITY
AND COULD HAVE A CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ONE SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATION EXPECTED TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN LEE TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH OF A
STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NEBRASKA /WHICH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS INTO
THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST/.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE WESTERN EDGE
OF RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROBABLY WILL AT LEAST STALL NEAR
THE HIGH PLAINS...IF NOT RETREAT WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIDED BY THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING...ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY.  AND SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE.  A 50-70 KT 500 MB JET
NOSING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS THE GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF ONE OR TWO
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 05/06/2016

$$


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