Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 180705
SWODY3
SPC AC 180704

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG...OR POSSIBLY SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS SEASONALLY WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE AS 500 MB
GRADIENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY TIGHT.  AS A RESULT...FLOW WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...EXTENDING INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 30KT.  EVEN SO...SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALONG CONVERGENT DRYLINE BY
AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD FOCUS DEEP CONVECTION.

LATEST THINKING IS MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY
ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE 50S.  AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS SHOULD FREELY CONVECT
ALONG DRY LINE...MOST LIKELY BY 22Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE WHERE SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR COULD
APPROACH 35KT NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...DROPPING TO NEAR 20KT
ACROSS NWRN OK.  WILL INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT
FOR A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS KS IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF SFC LOW...STRETCHING NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO IA.
FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS.
IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN RETURN TO THIS REGION THEN
LOW SEVERE PROBS MAY BE ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL
WITH SLOW-MOVING TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.

..DARROW.. 04/18/2014



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