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WTPA41 PHFO 280237
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
500 PM HST THU AUG 27 2015

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KILO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE CENTER POSITIONED UNDER THE COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 3.5...55 KT FROM SAB AND JTWC TO 4.0...65 KT
FROM PHFO. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE FIX CENTERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY.

NEARLY ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH
DAY 5 WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK INDICATED THROUGH 36 HOURS.
THIS WESTWARD TRACK IS DUE TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO INDICATED IN
THE SHORT TERM. THIS FOLLOWS ALONG CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS CENTERED DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH TIME. THIS WILL PLACE KILO SOUTHWEST OF THE
RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED AS KILO BEGINS
TO ROUND THE RIDGE. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE BEYOND 36 HOURS HAS
CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND FOLLOWS
CLOSELY ALONG WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW
DOWN AS KILO ENTERS AN AREA OF WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS WEST OF THE
RIDGE.

EVEN THOUGH KILO LIES IN AN AREA OF WARM SST VALUES OF AROUND
29C...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KT IS STILL BEING INDICATED
BY BOTH UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE
SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH KILO EXPECTED TO REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. BOTH THE HWFI AND GFDI
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN KILO MUCH MORE RAPIDLY THAN
SHIPS AND ICON GUIDANCE. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND HAS NOT
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING TO
AROUND 85 KT EXPECTED BY DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 17.4N 169.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 17.2N 169.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 17.1N 171.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 17.2N 172.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 17.5N 174.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 19.1N 176.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 21.4N 178.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 23.5N 179.1W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE







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