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000
FXAK69 PAFG 241008
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
208 AM AKDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Most of Northern Alaska remains quiet as a big bubble of high
pressure sits overhead. A front stretching from St. Lawrence
Island to the YK Delta will continue to bring some light rain and
breezy conditions. This front gradually pushes inland this morning with
mainly light rain from the Seward Peninsula southeast. Along the
North Slope, is mostly quiet today, but a high in the Arctic will
strengthen bringing strong easterly wind and blowing snow as we
head into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis...
At 500 mb, a 498 decameter low over the Central Bering Sea will
remain nearly stationary as an associated front moves into Western
Alaska this morning. A 543 decameter high over the Interior will
be strengthening and center itself over the Central Interior this
afternoon. A weakening 537 decameter low over Juneau has a front
extended into the southern Yukon and far southeastern Interior
which has provided some isolated rain showers. Otherwise, the high
over the Interior will remain dominant through the weekend, then
try to break down heading into next week.

Surface Analysis...
A weakening 973 mb low over the Central Bering Sea is extending a
front which will be moving into the West Coast this morning
bringing areas of rain and breezy conditions. Otherwise, a high
remains dominant over the rest of the state keeping the weather
mostly quiet today. A thermal trough has been developing in the
Interior which has sparked a few isolated rain showers over the
terrain and that will be the case once again today.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A front is currently bringing light rain from St. Lawrence Island
to the YK Delta. This gradually moves into the Seward Peninsula
around 7 to 10 AM this morning with areas of light rain as well.
It will be breezy with winds around 20 to 25 mph, gusting to 30
mph. Periods of light rain and rain showers look to continue from
Diomede to Anvik as the front remains nearly stationary through
Thursday, then conditions to improve and the rain showers will be
less numerous by Friday. Temperatures will be mild, but near to
slightly above average for this time of the year with highs in the
mid 30s to near 40 along the coast. In the Western Interior
northeast of Anvik, high temperatures will be in the upper 40s and
low 50s as most of the area remains dry.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Outside of a few higher terrain rain showers, our weather will
remain mostly quiet as a banana high stretching from the Yukon
through the Interior and around to Wrangell Island keeps us dry.
Winds will be increasing a bit today with the strongest being
around Delta Junction as a Tanana Valley Jet strengthens. Expect
gusts as high as 30 mph this evening around Delta Junction and
gusts 15 to 20 mph for the remainder of the Interior. There will
also be weak gap flow with gusts to 35 mph through the AK Range
passes tonight through Friday night. Otherwise, our warm and
mostly dry weather will persist through the end of the week and
into this weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Quiet weather today will come to an end along the coast as
easterly winds increase on Thursday. There will likely be some
blowing snow and lowered visibility, especially southeast of
Utqiagvik towards Deadhorse and Demarcation Point. At this time, a
Winter Storm Watch is issued for the Central and Eastern Beaufort
Sea Coast for blowing snow and potentially blizzard conditions
beginning on Thursday. Temperatures will be around average to
slightly above with highs in the teens to around 20 today, but
they will be dropping into the teens and single digits through
Friday. South from the coast, winds won`t be as strong and high
temperatures will be in the teens and 20s with lows in the single
digits and low teens. In the Brooks Range, expect highs in the 30s
with lows in the teens and 20s.

Extended Forecast For Days 4-7...
Ridging looks to remain dominant through this weekend but it will
be weakening, especially on Sunday. As this ridge breaks down,
there is some model disagreement on what exactly happens, but
there is some consensus on troughing entering the North Slope and
eventually the Interior and West Coast towards the beginning of
next week. Exact details will continue to be evaluated, but some
more active and slightly cooler weather may be headed our way as
we move into next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ804-805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-816-817-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
&&

$$

Bianco