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River Summary
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
000 SRAK48 PACR 152224 RVAAK HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK 200 PM ADT WED MAY 15 2013 ...SPRING BREAKUP OUTLOOK FOR ALASKA... THE SPRING BREAKUP FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT ALASKA IS CURRENTLY RATED AS MODERATE FOR MOST OF THE STATE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON OBSERVED SNOWPACK...ICE THICKNESS REPORTS AND LONG RANGE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. SHORT TERM FLOOD OUTLOOK- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF ALASKA. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE SNOW MELT PROCESS AND DECREASE THE VOLUME OF RUNOFF INTO THE RIVERS. BREAKUP IS PROCEEDING SLOWLY THROUGHOUT ALASKA AND WILL CONTINUE ON THAT TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR A DYNAMIC BREAKUP WHERE GREATER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS EXIST ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCES THAT FLOODING MIGHT BE MORE SEVERE THAN NORMAL AT SOME LOCATIONS. ICE - MAY 1ST ICE THICKNESS MEASUREMENTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR A LIMITED NUMBER OF SITES IN ALASKA. THEY INDICATE THAT ICE THICKNESS WAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 100 AND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ICE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE OVER MUCH OF ALASKA. AREAS WITH LONG HOURS OF SUNSHINE MAY SHOW SOME DETERIORATION OF SNOW-FREE ICE EVEN WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. SNOW - AN ANALYSIS OF THE MAY 1 SNOWPACK BY THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE (NRCS) INDICATED A MUCH ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. SIGNIFICANT APRIL SNOW INCREASED THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE STATE WHICH IS HIGHLY UNUSUAL. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS WEEK. THERE IS ENOUGH SNOW ANYWHERE ACROSS THE STATE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT RUNOFF PEAKS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING IF SUBJECTED TO A RAPID WARMING PATTERN. THIS TYPE OF SNOWMELT FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE THE RIVER ICE HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUT OR ROTTEN IN PLACE IF THE WARMING IS SUDDEN AND ABOVE NORMAL. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SNOWPACK.. PLEASE REFER TO THE VARIOUS SNOW GRAPH OPTIONS AT THE APRFC WEB SITE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV OR ON THE NRCS WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.AK.NRCS.USDA.GOV/SNOW/DATA/CURRENT.HTML WEATHER - A RELATIVELY SHARP INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES OCCURRED OVER THE WEEKEND IN SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA...BUT A COOLING TREND IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AND IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF BREAKUP REMAINS THE WEATHER DURING THE NEXT 2-3 WEEKS. DYNAMIC BREAKUPS WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL OF ICE JAM FLOODING TYPICALLY REQUIRE AN ABRUPT TRANSITION TO WARM SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES SOMETIME IN MAY. A WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY IN WESTERN ALASKA. THE WARMING TREND WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LAST FALL LIKELY HAVE HIGHER THAN NORMAL GROUNDWATER LEVELS. THESE AREAS ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR FLOODING AND DRAINAGE ISSUES IN THE EVENT OF A RAPID WARM UP. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE OUTLOOKS FOR THIS SPRING PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP RECENT BREAKUP ACTIVITY: ********************************************************************* *EVEN THOUGH A PARTICULAR RIVER OR REACH MAY BE DESCRIBED AS MOSTLY * *OPEN OR OPEN... IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR RUNS OF ICE AND DEBRIS TO * *MOVE THROUGH AS HEADWATERS UPSTREAM BREAKUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION AT* *ALL TIMES WHEN ATTEMPTING TO NAVIGATE RIVERS. * ********************************************************************* SUSITNA RIVER THE ICE WENT OUT ON THE SKWENTNA RIVER AT SKWENTNA BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT MONDAY THE 13TH. THE ICE BROKE AT YENTNA TUESDAY EVENING THE 14TH. THE SUSITNA RIVER WAS REPORTED TO HAVE OPEN LEADS UPSTREAM FROM TALKEETNA BUT LITTLE MOVEMENT OF ICE WAS NOTED. COPPER RIVER ON THE GAKONA RIVER AT THE HIGHWAY SHOWED SIGNIFICANT OVERFLOW OF MUDDY WATER ON TOP OF THE ICE. THE ICE IS BULGING AND CRACKING BUT NO MOVEMENT YET. TANANA RIVER.. THE ICE IS REPORTED TO BE OUT ON THE CHATANIKA RIVER AT THE UAF WATERSHED ROAD BRIDGE. THE CHISANA AND NABESNA RIVERS ARE OPEN BUT THE TANANA RIVER IS STILL SOLID AT THE ALASKA HIGHWAY BRIDGE NEAR TOK. THE ICE DID BREAK ON THE TANANA RIVER AT NORTHWAY ON WEDNESDAY THE 8TH BUT DOWNSTREAM FROM THERE THE ICE IS REPORTED TO BE INTACT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF BIG DELTA WHERE THE RIVER IS OPEN. KUSKOKWIM RIVER... THE ICE WENT OUT AT NIKOLAI THURSDAY NIGHT THE 9TH. AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE NORTH AND SOUTH FORKS OF THE KUSKOKWIM THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT OVERFLOW BUT NO OPEN LEADS. THE SAME CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE EAST AND NORTH FORKS. AT MCGRATH THE WATER LEVEL WAS UP WITH OVERFLOW ON THE MAIN CHANNEL. FROM MCGRATH UPSTREAM TO THE BIG RIVER THE ICE IS LIFTING...BUT THERE WAS NO OPEN WATER. AT RED DEVIL THE WATER IS RISING AND THE SHORE ICE IS CRACKING AND POPPING. WATER LEVELS WERE ALSO RISING IN NAPAIMUTE WITH OVERFLOW ALONG THE BANKS. AT CROOKED CREEK THE WATER FLOW ALONG THE NORTH BANK HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING IN WIDTH. KOYUKUK RIVER AT BETTLES THE SNOW WAS MELTING QUICKLY BUT THERE WAS STILL SNOW ON THE ICE. YUKON RIVER AT DAWSON THE KLONDIKE RIVER WENT OUT LATE YESTERDAY AND PUSHED INTO THE YUKON RIVER CAUSING SOME CRACKING AND OPEN WATER BUT THE MAIN CHANNEL DOWNSTREAM WAS STILL INTACT AS OF LAST NIGHT. REPORTS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL RUN OF ICE BEHIND A POSSIBLE ICE JAM ON THE KLONDIKE. NEAR EAGLE WATER IS FLOWING OUT OF THE TRIBUTARY STREAMS INCLUDING EAGLE AND MISSION CREEKS AND THE 40 MILE RIVER. AT GALENA PONDING IS STARTING TO SHOW. THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES AN ESTIMATION OF FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS AROUND THE STATE AND BASIN RUNOFF VOLUMES. --------------------------------------------------------------------- SNOWMELT RUNOFF VOLUME...EXPECTED WATER VOLUME FROM SNOWMELT DURING THE MELT SEASON. FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING FROM SNOWMELT AND/OR ICE JAMS. * AVERAGE BREAKUP DATES ARE FOR THE PERIOD 1970 THROUGH 2012 AND ARE CALCULATED FOR LOCATIONS WITH AT LEAST 5 YEARS OF DATA. ** INDICATES ACTUAL BREAKUP DATE --------------------------------------------------------------------- SNOWMELT FLOOD AVERAGE NO. OF FORECAST RIVER - REACH RUNOFF POTENTIAL BREAKUP YEARS BREAKUP VOLUME DATE * RECORD DATE ------------- ---------- --------- ------- ------ -------- SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE ABOVE KENAI RIVER ABOVE ANCHOR RIVER ABOVE 04/16 10 MATANUSKA RIVER ABOVE 04/30 8 SUSITNA RIVER ABOVE GOLD CREEK LOW-MOD 05/03 9 SUNSHINE LOW-MOD 05/02 28 5/16-5/19 YENTNA RIVER AVERAGE LAKE CREEK LOW-MOD 05/01 22 5/14** SKWENTNA RIVER AVERAGE SKWENTNA LOW-MOD 05/03 19 5/13** COPPER RIVER BASIN AVERAGE GAKONA RVR @ HWY LOW 05/02 25 5/16-5/19 GULKANA RVR @ HWY LOW 05/01 29 5/16-5/19 CHENA RIVER ABOVE CHENA LAKES PROJECT LOW FAIRBANKS LOW 04/28 26 5/15-5/18 TANANA RIVER ABOVE NORTHWAY LOW 04/21 31 5/08** SALCHA MODERATE FAIRBANKS LOW 04/29 14 5/16-5/19 NENANA LOW-MOD 05/04 39 5/16-5/19 MANLEY LOW-MOD 05/01 23 5/17-5/20 KUSKOKWIM RIVER AVERAGE NIKOLAI LOW 04/24 30 5/09** MCGRATH MODERATE 05/07 39 5/16-5/21 STONY RIVER LOW 05/05 25 5/16-5/21 SLEETMUTE MODERATE 05/05 24 5/17-5/22 RED DEVIL MODERATE 05/06 27 5/17-5/22 CROOKED CREEK MODERATE 05/07 27 5/18-5/23 ANIAK MODERATE 05/08 34 5/18-5/23 KALSKAG LOW-MOD 05/08 24 5/19-5/24 TULUKSAK LOW-MOD 05/10 21 5/20-5/25 AKIAK LOW-MOD 05/10 27 5/20-5/25 KWETHLUK MODERATE BETHEL LOW-MOD 05/12 42 5/22-5/27 NAPAKIAK LOW-MOD 05/13 19 5/23-5/28 YUKON RIVER (UPPER) ABOVE DAWSON, YT 05/06 43 5/15-5/18 EAGLE MODERATE 05/05 35 5/16-5/19 CIRCLE MODERATE 05/09 31 5/17-5/21 FORT YUKON LOW-MOD 05/10 30 5/18-5/22 BEAVER LOW 05/11 18 5/19-5/23 STEVENS VILLAGE LOW 05/12 18 5/19-5/23 RAMPART LOW 05/12 18 5/20-5/24 YUKON RIVER (MIDDLE) ABOVE TANANA LOW-MOD 05/10 28 5/21-5/25 RUBY LOW 05/11 29 5/22-5/26 GALENA MODERATE 05/13 29 5/22-5/26 KOYUKUK MODERATE NULATO MODERATE 05/12 17 5/23-5/27 KALTAG LOW 05/14 37 5/24-5/28 ANVIK LOW 05/16 26 5/26-5/30 YUKON RIVER (LOWER) ABOVE HOLY CROSS LOW 05/16 26 5/26-5/30 RUSSIAN MISSION LOW 05/15 28 5/26-5/31 MARSHALL MODERATE 05/15 22 5/26-5/31 PILOT STATION LOW 05/17 16 5/27-6/01 MOUNTAIN VILLAGE LOW 05/19 26 5/28-6/02 ALAKANUK/EMMONAK MODERATE 05/23 28 5/29-6/03 KOYUKUK RIVER AVERAGE BETTLES LOW 05/09 31 5/20-5/25 ALLAKAKET LOW 05/10 26 5/21-5/26 HUGHES MODERATE 05/10 32 5/21-5/26 SEWARD PENINSULA BELOW BUCKLAND RIVER BELOW BUCKLAND MODERATE 05/18 23 5/26-5/31 KOBUK RIVER BELOW KOBUK MODERATE 05/16 33 5/24-5/29 SHUNGNAK LOW 05/18 23 5/26-5/31 AMBLER LOW 05/18 30 5/26-5/31 NOATAK RIVER BELOW NOATAK LOW 05/20 18 5/28-6/02 BROOKS RANGE - NORTH AVERAGE COLVILLE @ UMIAT LOW 05/24 13 6/01-6/06 COLVILLE @ COLVILLE LOW-MOD 06/01 16 6/07-6/11 FOR MORE DETAIL AND TO SEE A FLOOD POTENTIAL MAP REFER TO OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV. THE NEXT SPRING BREAKUP OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED AT 2 PM THURSDAY MAY 16. $$ RAR
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