Spot Forecast Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
000
FNUS71 KAKQ 100932
FWSAKQ
Spot Forecast for Nassawango-U5...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
532 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on April 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.
.DISCUSSION...
Mostly cloudy today, with a few light rain showers or sprinkles
possible early this morning. A light SW wind early this morning is
expected to become 10 mph later this morning into the afternoon,
with occasional gusts to 20 mph possible this afternoon. An
approaching cold front will bring showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A breezy
south wind is expected ahead of the front Thursday, with the wind
shifting to west and remaining breezy Friday and Saturday behind
the cold front.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph increasing to 17 to 24
mph in the afternoon, then decreasing to around
13 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (71900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................4 early in the morning increasing to 61 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........87 85 83 79 76 72 67 62 57 57 57 57
Weather cov.....SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............58 59 59 62 64 67 69 71 72 73 74 73
RH..............86 83 83 75 73 65 61 57 55 53 51 55
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 9
20 FT wind gust.8 8 8 11 13 14 15 16 19 16 15 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW W W W W SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.6 6 7 9 12 15 18 22 24 22 17 13
LVORI...........6 5 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............4 5 5 10 24 39 54 54 61 54 56 42
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 2 2 8 16 28 43 59 72 62 48 34
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD FR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (19700 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (2200 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................4 to 27.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........60 63 67 68 70 71 70 69 68 72 76 80
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............72 70 68 66 64 63 63 62 61 61 60 59
RH..............57 61 68 70 75 78 78 81 84 81 84 87
20 FT wind dir..SW S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..8 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.13 11 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 11 11 11
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.10 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10
LVORI...........2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5
ADI.............27 6 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..20 10 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely
late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 16 mph with gusts to around 30
mph increasing to 17 to 18 mph with gusts to
around 33 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 17 mph increasing to 20 to 24 mph
late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (36700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................9 to 45.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........83 88 90 97 100 100
Weather cov..... LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 70 70
Temp............59 60 64 68 69 71
RH..............87 87 81 73 69 67
20 ft wind......S 7 S 8 S 11 S 16 S 18 S 19
20 ft wind gust.12 14 19 23 30 32
Mix hgt (ft)....400 400 1200 1700 2000 1800
Transport wind..S 10 S 12 S 17 S 21 S 21 S 23
LVORI...........5 5 3 3 3 1
ADI.............9 12 26 45 41 41
Haines index....4 4 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 4 18 31 37 36
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...ZIMMERMAN
Requested by...Gabriel Cahalan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410188.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org