181
FXUS61 KALY 011817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
217 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a cloudy start to the morning, more breaks of sun
are expected this afternoon with above normal high temperatures. Dry
and tranquil weather continues through the end of the week, with
cooler temperatures and increasing chances for showers over the
weekend. Warmer temperatures and dry weather return to start the
work week, although chances for showers increase again towards
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.Update...As of 110 PM EDT...Stratus coverage continues to
decrease across the region this afternoon with visible
satellite showing a greater coverage of fair weather cumulus.
This has allowed for increased breaks of sun throughout eastern
New York and western New England, leading to temperatures
increasing primarily to the 60s and 70s. A warm front still
remains displaced to the west of the region but will continue to
approach throughout the afternoon. This will help temperatures
rise into the mid 60s to low to mid 70s especially in the lower
Mid-Hudson Valley. Made minor adjustments to temperatures to
reflect recent obs and latest trends. Other than some other
minor adjustments to cloud coverage, the forecast remains on
track. See previous discussion for additional details....

.Previous...A cold front and wave of low pressure that
developed along the front are departing to our southeast, with
most of the showers from earlier tonight having come to and end.
Behind this front, weak low-level winds and abundant moisture
have allowed for widespread low stratus and some drizzle/mist.
Some patchy fog has formed where there are any breaks in the
clouds, so we will likely remain quite damp through the
remainder of the overnight period despite mid-level drying
approaching from the west. The clouds have helped to keep
temperatures elevated, with most areas in the 40s to 50s. The
coldest spot is the upper Hudson Valley where northeasterly
winds have allowed for some dry/cold air advection down from the
north.

Today starts off with plenty of low clouds around which may help
to keep temperatures on the cooler side to start the day, but
with the surface low continuing to track further to the east and
height rises aloft we should see more breaks in the clouds as we
head into the afternoon. A warm front will begin to lift
northeastwards across the region this afternoon and evening,
which will help temperatures climb into the 70s for highs for
valley areas, especially south of I-90. Exact highs today will
depend on just how quickly the clouds clear this morning; if
the clouds are slower to clear then temperatures will likely end
up a couple degrees below the current forecast. Most of the
rest of the region will see highs in the 60s today. Most of
today will be dry, although there could be a few pop-up showers
from the southeast Adirondacks through the upper Hudson Valley
into southern VT this afternoon north of the advancing warm
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight and Thursday...The warm front continues lifting
northeastward across our region tonight. We will likely see some
mid-level clouds with the warm front, and mid/high clouds will
also be increasing ahead of a potent upper disturbance that
will track north of our region late tonight into tomorrow. Will
bring in slight chance PoPs for the southern Adirondacks, the
upper Hudson Valley, and southern VT late tonight in with this
disturbance approaching, although the bulk of the precipitation
should remain north of our forecast area. Went with lows near
NBM/MOS guidance, with most places in the 40s to 50s. As the
upper disturbance and associated surface low track
north/northeast of our region tomorrow morning, the system`s
trailing cold front will track through the region. Behind the
front, we should see more clearing, breezy conditions, and
relatively deep mixing. Per collaboration with OKX, ended up
dumping temperatures up a few to several degrees above NBM/MOS
guidance especially considering the fact that even our valley
areas are not quite greened up yet.

Thursday night through Friday night...A large-scale upper ridge
will located near the Great Lakes Thursday night will amplify
as it slowly tracks eastwards. The ridge axis moves overhead
Friday night. A broad area of high pressure will be located
downstream of the ridge in eastern Canada, with a ridge of high
pressure at the surface extending southwards over eastern NY
and western New England. Subsidence from these features should
keep our area dry through at least midnight Friday night,
although a couple showers can`t be ruled out for western areas
later Friday night as an upper disturbance and a low-level warm
front approach from the west. As for temperatures, lows Thursday
and Friday night will be mainly in the 40s to around 50. Highs
Friday are somewhat tricky, as east/southeast flow around the
surface high will result in cooler temperatures (highs in the
50s to 60s) across western New England, while areas further west
that are closer to the upper ridge axis should see warmer
temperatures (highs in the 60s to low 70s).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The period starts out Sat with an upper level ridge axis over our
region, with surface high pressure over southern New England
gradually shifting eastward off the coast. A frontal system will be
approaching from the west and may bring some showers, especially
later Saturday afternoon. Guidance differs on the timing due to
possible slowing of the front as it encounters the ridging along the
New England coast. Will mention slight to low chance PoPs for now
with near normal temperatures. The better likelihood for showers
arrives Sat night into Sun, as the system gets closer. Sun looks to
be unsettled and cool with a low level SE flow and plenty of clouds
around with showers continuing.

The last front should clear the area by Mon, with zonal W-NW flow
developing as surface high pressure builds in. So dry conditions and
slightly above normal temperatures are expected. Tue also looks
mainly dry at this time with seasonably warm temperatures, although
will have to watch for a possible warm front starting to approach
from the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic region. At this time, it
appears the better chance of showers would hold off until Tue
night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Low stratus from the morning has finally burned off at all the
terminals. VFR ceilings will prevail the rest of the day with
breaks of sun.

VFR conditions continue this evening before southerly winds
ahead of a warm front advect in marine moisture from the
Atlantic. This will result in MVFR conditions returning to PSF
and POU by 05 - 08 UTC. ALB and GFL will also see a return to
MVFR ceilings a few hours later arriving closer to 08 - 12 UTC.
There is potential for IFR ceilings at POU and PSF mainly from
07 - 13 UTC as low-level moisture collects beneath the low-level
inversion. Once the associated cold front sweeps through the
region from west to east by 15 - 18 UTC, MVFR and IFR ceilings
will quickly improve to VFR. Given PSF is the furthest east, it
likely will be the last to see improvements.

Westerly winds this afternoon sustained 5-10kts with gusts up to
15kts will weaken after sunset becoming southerly and sustained
around 5kts or less. Southerly winds gradually shift south-
southwest early tomorrow before veering to the west-northwest
and becoming gusty as a cold front sweeps through the region.
Winds become sustained 5 to 12kts and gusts up to 15-20kts.


Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Gant/Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale