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000
FXUS64 KAMA 171706
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1206 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Well above normal temperatures in the 80s are in the offing for
today as generally zonal flow aloft prevails. These highs are
about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
However, the lofty temperatures will not last long. A fairly
strong cold front will track southward across the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles late tonight and Thursday morning with much
cooler temperatures anticipated behind the boundary. Highs on
Thursday will likely only reach into the 60s with perhaps lower
70s across the far southeast Texas Panhandle. These temperatures
will be around 15 to 25 degrees cooler than highs foreseen today.
In addition, north winds in the breezy to windy categories are
expected Thursday due to a tight pressure gradient as cool surface
high pressure builds into the area in the wake of the cold front.
Short range models are in good agreement and were accepted.

02

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The below normal temperatures mentioned above will persist through
the weekend. The next upper level shortwave trof is forecast to
impact the region Friday night through Sunday morning and will
likely bring the next chance for precipitation. Specific details
such as rainfall amounts associated with this next storm system
remain in question given this is still 3 to 4 days out in time.
Nevertheless, medium range deterministic models and the associated
ensembles are in reasonable agreement with respect to timing and
were accepted. This translates to late Friday night into Saturday
as the greatest threat for precipitation to occur, and this is
reflected in the NBM pops. Rain chances diminish Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Dry weather returns area-wide by mid morning
Sunday through Monday as the upper level shortwave trof heads
east of the area and is replaced by an upper level ridge of high
pressure on Monday which will lead to warmer temperatures on that
day. NBM pops and temperatures look reasonable based on the progged
synoptic pattern and were incorporated into all periods of the long
term forecast.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions will persist at all terminals and across the
panhandles until the arrival of a cold front Thursday morning.
Likewise the winds will be on the weak side from the SW to WSW
until the passage of the cold front. Once the cold front passes
winds will quickly shift to the N and become breezy and gusty with
gusts in the 30s kt. This will push in a low cloud deck that will
cause MVFR conditions during the morning hours. The MVFR
conditions will persist until the later morning hours where it
will dissipate in the SW to NE fashion being entirely done no
later than the afternoon. While all terminals will see the winds
KDHT and KGUY are the station that have a very high chance of
seeing the MVFR cloud decks. KAMA has a moderately low chance of
seeing the MVFR cloud decks thus this was not carried in the TAF
currently.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                50  65  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  46  64  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              42  61  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  52  67  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              48  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  49  67  42  62 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               52  69  44  62 /   0   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 43  63  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  44  63  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                49  69  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                51  66  41  63 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   51  65  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                53  69  44  64 /   0   0   0  10
Wellington TX              53  72  45  63 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...98