745
FXUS63 KAPX 300345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers and areas of fog overnight

- Some light shower chances Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

- Sneaky fire weather concerns Wednesday?

- More widespread rain Thursday/Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current radar depicts heavy rain and
storms embedded in stratiform rain over the NE lower Lake Huron
coast. These storms will continue east over the waters, brining
gusty winds, lightening, and heavy rain to western Lake Huron.
Clouds and light rain will linger through the evening,
especially for NW lower, the tip of the mitt, and eastern upper
as the triple point of the surface low moves over the tip of the
mitt. Winds will turn westerly as rain finally clears out later
tonight (closer to midnight). Chances for fog tonight exist
near the lake shores, with the best chances over the Lake Huron
Coast and near the tip of the mitt. Easter upper will keep cloud
cover most of the night. Any fog that forms, or lingering
clouds will clear out Tuesday afternoon. Fair weather CU should
try and form in the afternoon hours with all the moisture that
is left over from today, and winds will be westerly and slightly
breezy in the afternoon.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: As precipitation moves out
tonight, the parent upper level trough will lag slightly behind,
with the axis rotating through NW lower and the UP early Tuesday
morning. This leads to a little uncertainty with fog formation, as
its not the idea radiational set up and drier air will move in with
the west/southwest winds. CAMs linger low clouds and some fog over
NW lower through mid night, then keep things mixed enough to raise
surface visibilities through the morning hours as the upper
level trough passes over. NE lower might be far enough away from
the forcing to get a better shot at fog that will linger
through tomorrow morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pattern Forecast: Series of short wave troughs lined up across the
Pacific...lead trough in this series moving into British
Columbia/Pacific northwest will settle across the northern Rockies
by midweek.  Weak short wave energy will cross the upper Lakes
Wednesday with more substantial height falls into the Four Corners
region Thursday...this in turn will bump heights up across the Great
Lakes.  Rockies trough then expected to eject northeast and impact
the region with at least a couple of short wave troughs in the
Friday/Saturday time frame.

Lead short wave trough Wednesday will push a weakening cold front
across Michigan during the day...while another lee side low will
develop over eastern Colorado/western Kansas and track into the
upper Midwest Thursday.  Associated warm front expected to lift
north across Wisconsin/Lower Michigan later Thursday/Thursday night
and followed by a cold front in the Friday time frame.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Some light shower chances Tuesday night/Wednesday morning: Lead
short wave trough forecast to come out of the eastern Dakotas
Tuesday night and propagate northeast across Lake Superior
Wednesday.  This will be accompanied by a weakening cold front that
should initially have a narrow band of rain along/ahead of it across
the upper Midwest Tuesday evening.  But with better forcing lifting
northeast not sure there is going to be much precipitation with this
band as it approaches Lower Michigan Wednesday morning.  Right now
best precipitation probabilities should be across eastern Upper
(along with some shallow instability Wednesday afternoon) and the
tip of the mitt counties.

Sneaky fire weather concerns Wednesday?:  Thanks to recent rainfall
fuel moisture should not be an immediate issue (though it never
takes long to dry things out in the northern Michigan sandbox)...but
some concern for relative humidity values dropping below 30 percent
across interior northern Lower Wednesday afternoon.  What appears to
be a weak pressure gradient suggests a good lake breeze day and not
a lot of wind concerns but there is some momentum in what should be
a fairly deep CBL to get mixed down during the day so it may be
surprisingly gusty (15-25+mph gusts).

More widespread rain Thursday/Friday: Developing warm front that
will be lifting north into the upper Lakes Thursday will have a
decent surge of moisture coming up over the warm frontal zone
(precipitable water values 1.00- 1.25+").  That should get things
started although anticipating an east-west gradient in precipitation
probabilities. Surface low that will move from the central Plains
and into Minnesota/Wisconsin by Thursday night expected to
eventually lift into northwest Ontario Friday and push a cold front
across Lower Michigan during the day.  This should be accompanied by
a frontal rain band that sweeps across northern Michigan during the
day.  Rain may come to an end by late in the day for areas west of I-
75. Rainfall amounts in excess of 0.50" don`t seem unreasonable by
the time rain comes to an end Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Occluded low will lift thru Upper Michigan and Lake Superior
overnight...and then thru Ontario Monday into Monday night.
Residual scattered rain showers will come to an end overnight...
leaving low stratus and areas of fog into Tuesday. IFR conditions
will hang on across Eastern Upper and far Northern/NE Lower
Michigan overnight into Tuesday morning. Mainly low VFR
conditions are expected around TVC and MBL overnight into
Tuesday morning. Conditions will steadily improve Tuesday
afternoon and evening as a narrow ridge axis builds into
Michigan. Light easterly winds will shift to the west at around
10 kts on Tuesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MLR