Text Products for FWS Issued by APX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
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FNUS73 KAPX 231319
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for National City SVE RX...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
919 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Sun-filled skies are expected Wednesday at the burn
site with northerly winds during the morning taking on a more
northeasterly component Wednesday afternoon. Occasional eye-level
gusts between 15-22 mph expected through early afternoon, gradually
diminishing to below 15 mph mid-late Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Much drier air expected for Wednesday with RHs at the burn site
expected to fall to 24-29 percent during the afternoon. Decent RH
recovery Wednesday night before potentially falling back to
near-critical levels on Thursday.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 44.
Min humidity........24 percent.
20-foot winds.......North winds around 10 mph early in the
                    afternoon becoming light.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......3400-4000 ft AGL.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (395.0-545.0).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   0   0   0   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............38  40  41  43  44  44
RH..............35  31  29  25  24  24
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..13  13  13  12  12  12
20 ft wind gust.18  18  18  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.8
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.16  15  13  12  12  10
Vrate kt-ft.....545 519 480 462 441 395
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  PR

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 23.
Max humidity........61 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest
                    3 to 5 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......1400-3100 ft AGL decreasing to 200-900 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (9.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........1   2   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   4   4   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............43  41  38  34  32  30  29  28  27  26  26  26
RH..............25  29  32  38  44  49  53  55  57  59  60  60
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..9   9   9   6   6   6   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 ft wind gust.14  14  14  9   9   9   5   5   5   3   3   3
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.9   9   8   8   7   7   6   6   5   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft.....295 190 109 68  45  31  21  16  13  10  9   11
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........28 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......400-1600 ft AGL increasing to 4100-4700 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (14.0-413.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........5      6      8      8      7      6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............26     29     40     48     51     52
RH..............61     58     42     33     29     29
20 ft wind dir..SW     SW     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 ft wind spd..2      2      6      8      8      9
20 ft wind gust.3      3      7      13     13     14
Mix hgt (ft)....400    900    2500   3900   4500   4600
Haines index....4      5      5      5      5      5
Transport wind..SW 3   S 5    SE 6   SE 7   S 8    S 9
Vrate kt-ft.....14     42     133    254    365    413
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411947.0/APX
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
