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000
FXUS61 KBGM 212232
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
632 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy skies will become mostly clear overnight, with
temperatures dropping below freezing outside of most urban
areas. Sunnier, but continued cool weather will prevail on
Monday, with warm and breezy conditions Tuesday. Rain chances
will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by drier
conditions to round out the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Lowered temperatures over the next few hours given the cloud
cover in place early this evening. However, this should also
keep temperatures from tanking heading into the mid and late
evening hours. Previous discussion below.


241 PM Update...

Cloud cover will have a diurnal trend, diminishing after
sunset, with temps dropping below freezing overnight outside of
urban areas. A weak surface trough will drop through the area
tonight, with westerly flow becoming northwesterly on Monday.
This will help keep max temperatures about 5 to 8 degrees below
normal, despite increased sunshine. It will remain dry, with
deeper mixing tapping into drier air aloft as well. As such,
minimum RH values will drop into the 25 to 30 percent range
during the afternoon. Lighter winds will keep critical fire
weather conditions at bay, however.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...
Main feature of note this period will be a frontal system
passing through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a
batch of rain followed by falling temperatures.

Clouds will increasing Tuesday, but will take some time for
south-southwesterly winds to bring in moisture to the lower-mid
levels, well ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence has
increased that any actual rain will hold off during the day due
to the amount of dry air in the boundary layer. With warmer
temperatures, and dewpoints likely ending up on the low side of
model guidance, we are figuring on relative humidity still
managing to dip well into the 30s percent range. This along with
winds increasing to sustained 10-20 mph may make things a little
more sensitive in terms of fire weather. That said, both wind
and humidity values will be marginal at worst; both factors not
eclipsing critical levels. Highs Tuesday will be upper 50s to
mid 60s.

Pre-frontal trough will advance into the area Tuesday night,
followed by the front itself early Wednesday, with rain. Non-
diurnal temperatures are figured for Wednesday, with models now
agreeing upon a progressive timing which will result in post-
frontal cold air advection through the day. Generally speaking
precipitation type will be all rain with this system, but on the
back side lingering showers could mix with a negligible amount
of wet snow in the higher terrain before ending fairly quickly
midday-early afternoon Wednesday. We are not expecting rain
amounts to be a problem; generally a quarter to half inch total
though a few spots roughly along the NY Thruway counties could
get slightly more than that.

After lows of 40s Tuesday night, temperatures basically go
nowhere Twin Tiers northward with highs of 40s, yet still
managing lower 50s in Wyoming Valley to Southern Catskills.
Northwesterly winds gusting into 25-35 mph range will make it
feel fairly raw Wednesday afternoon. The sky will clear out
Wednesday night, with lows of 20s-lower 30s. Indeed we will only
just be entering the final week of April, so temperatures like
that while chilly are not unusual.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM Update...
Though quiet late in the workweek, an approaching warm front is
expected to result in eventually wet conditions over the
weekend.

Dry weather is forecast as high pressure passes Thursday into
Friday. Northwest winds and cooler temperatures are still
anticipated as the high pressure builds in Thursday, followed by
a near calm and cool night with lows of mid 20s-lower 30s. We
get into return flow on the back side of the high Friday,
allowing temperatures to quickly moderate into upper 50s-lower
60s with full sunshine.

A warm frontal zone, extending from a low over the Upper
Midwest, will advance into the region Saturday. This will bring
an increasing likelihood for rain especially later Saturday into
Saturday night, though at this time it does not appear to be an
excessive amount since the front is projected to move right
along instead of stalling. We can thus expect a further boost of
temperatures during the second half of the weekend as we get
into the warm sector.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread cloud cover prevails across the region, but ceilings
are well within the VFR category, generally between 5000 and
6000 feet. Clouds will diminish after dark, with VFR prevailing
through the period.

West to northwest winds will gust close to 20 knots at times
this afternoon, though the cloud cover has delayed mixing
slightly. Lighter, variable winds will prevail overnight, with
generally light NW flow expected tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH/MWG
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...JTC/MPH