Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 152051
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
351 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions much of southwest and south
  central North Dakota this afternoon and evening.

- A cold front is forecast to move through the region this
  evening resulting in a wind shift. Windy conditions continue
  Saturday.

- A cooling trend will bring seasonable temperatures through
  Sunday. A quick warm up is then anticipated through Tuesday,
  before again cooling broadly to or below seasonable normals
  through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

An upper level low continues to move across central Manitoba
bringing forth a cold front. A tight surface pressure gradient
across the state has lead to advisory level winds across the
east. Therefore, the Wind Advisory will remain in effect until
this evening. The cold front is forecast to move through the
state this evening ushering in a wind shift tonight. Pressure
rises behind the front will keep winds elevated resulting in
breezy overnight winds as advisory level winds are forecast to
diminish this evening.

High temperatures have warmed across the state resulting in
upper 40s north to lower 50s. Dry and windy conditions has
lead to the issuance of a Red Flag Warning across the southern
half of the state this afternoon, see the fire weather
discussion for more information.

Colder air will seep into the region tonight resulting in cooler
temperatures tomorrow. Highs will range from the lower 30s north
to mid 40s southwest. Breezy winds will continue tomorrow
afternoon as gradient winds continue. This weekend temperatures
are forecast to remain cooler as the colder air mass moves
overhead with Sunday being the coldest day. An upper level ridge
will build out over the west resulting in warmer weather.
Temperatures are forecast to warm in to the mid 60s out west to
the lower 40s in the southeast. The NBM 25th to 75th percentile
has a pretty wide range for high temperatures Monday depending
on the placement of the upper level ridge.

The upper level pattern is forecast to change Tuesday resulting
in the ridge flattening out. An upper level trough will move
through the region by the middle of next week resulting in a
chance for snow Wednesday night. A broad trough could move
through the Plains later next week resulting in an active
pattern by the end of next week. There is still a lot of
unceratianity with this system and the impact it will have
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR conditions will continue until tomorrow morning when low
clouds are forecast to move in resulting in MVFR ceilings. Winds
will remain gusty out of the southwest/west until a cold front
moves through ushering in northwesterly winds late this evening.
Sustained winds will remain elevated overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Low relative humidity around 15% across the southwest and 20%
across the south central this afternoon have been observed. In
addition sustained 20 ft winds are around 20 to 30 mph has lead
to critical fire weather conditions across the southern half of
the state. A cold front if forecast to veer southwesterly and
westerly winds to northwesterly later this evening. Colder
temperatures from the cold front will increase relative humidity
tonight hampering the fire weather concerns by tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson
FIRE WEATHER...Johnson


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