262
FXUS64 KBRO 021746 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1246 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A somewhat more calm weather pattern is expected during this
portion of the total forecast. After largely dry weather today, a
500 mb disturbance will approach the western portion of the BRO
CWFA late Friday. Showers/thunderstorms will develop at that time
over neighboring Mexico, and isolated convection may ease into
Zapata, Starr, and Jim Hogg counties for Friday afternoon and
evening. Indeed, for this time period, the Storm Prediction Center
indicates a general risk of thunderstorms, and additionally, no
severe weather is anticipated.

Additionally, slightly above normal to above normal daytime high and
overnight low temperatures will occur, thankfully tempered by mostly
cloudy skies. A moderate to breezy onshore flow is also probable.

Finally, elevated seas will result in a MODERATE RISK of rip
currents at the local beaches today through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A nearly zonal flow aloft with a series of mid-level shortwaves will
prevail through period. This pattern will continue to support warm,
humid, and generally rain-free conditions. Temperatures Friday night
through Sunday will be above normal with overnight lows in the mid
to upper 70s and highs generally in the upper 80s to the upper 90s,
except for the lower 80s near the coast.

Late in the weekend into the middle part of next week, the 500mb sub-
tropical ridge will build north into Deep South Texas leading to hot
and humid conditions across the region. Highs on Monday will range
from the lower 90s to around 100 degrees, except for the 80s at the
beaches, across the CWA. Heat indices of 100 to 107 degrees are
expected Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be hotter Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 90s near the coast and in the
100s elsewhere. An expanding Major HeatRisk area by Tuesday and
Wednesday will prevail across the area, mainly west of I-69C. Heat
indices between 100 to 110 degrees will be possible Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon. A Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of
the Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley by Wednesday.

The rip current risk will remain moderate to occasionally high
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

MVFR conditions prevail currently at the TAF sites due to lower
ceilings. Abundant low clouds are moving up from the southeast on
moderate winds. A few higher clouds may also be present based on
satellite imagery. In general, high pressure over the Gulf will
support a seasonal wind regime. Though there could be some
afternoon breaks here and there, guidance locks in MVFR ceilings
at the TAF sites from this evening through Friday morning.
Moderate to breezy southeast winds today will be just slightly
weaker on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Today through Friday: An enhanced pressure gradient along the
Lower Texas Coast today will ease slightly on Friday, as the
typical high pressure and low pressure interaction weakens a bit.
Moderate seas and moderate to breezy winds are anticipated, and
while Small Craft Advisory is not likely to be needed, Small Craft
Exercise Caution is probable for portions or all of the lower
Texas coastal waters during the period.

Friday night through Wednesday...Moderate to occasionally strong
southeast winds will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the
period. Small craft caution conditions will be the dominant hazard.
However, marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible
at times, on the Laguna Madre and across the nearshore Gulf waters,
due to the enhanced pressure gradient early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  78  90  76 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN               92  75  92  74 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 94  78  94  77 /  10   0  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         96  76  94  75 /  10   0  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  77  82  77 /  10  10  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  76  87  75 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...54-BHM