Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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085 FXUS61 KBUF 101743 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 143 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unfortunately...cool and generally unsettled weather will remain in place through the weekend. Thats not to say that the next couple of days will be a washout...as there will be frequent rainfree periods as well. Daytime temperatures this weekend will be a solid 5 degrees BELOW typical mid May levels. While the mercury will TRY to get back towards normal for the first half of next week...there will still be a fair amount of showers around. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Rainy weather will be in place across much of our forecast area for the rest of the afternoon...particularly over the Finger Lakes region...as we will remain on the northern periphery of a poorly organized storm system over the Mid Atlantic region. Lift from this feature will be enhanced by a shortwave trough that will sag south through the region. The whole area will not be adversely impacted though...as enough dry air in the mid levels will allow for some sunshine from Niagara county to near Rochester...and also across parts of the North country. The aforementioned shortwave trough will push the weak area of low pressure further away from our region tonight...while a progressive shortwave ridge will cross the Lower Great Lakes. This scenario will be accompanied by a wedge of dry mid level air that will bring an end to the rain in most areas while promoting some clearing...mainly over the western counties. A robust shortwave and attendant sfc low will dive southeast across the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday. A swath of deep moisture ahead of this system will push across the western counties during the midday and afternoon...then across the Eastern Lake Ontario region late in the day and Saturday night. The resulting lift supplied by moderate hgt falls...low level convergence and being in the proximity of the left front quad of a nominal 90kt H25 jet with this scenario will prompt a renewal in shower activity as the day matures. There could even be a thunderstorm over the western counties. The most widespread and persistent shower activity will be over the western counties during the afternoon. Dry weather with some sunshine can even be expected for the Finger Lakes before conditions deteriorate. It will remain cool...as temperatures on Saturday will top out within a few degrees of 60. Showery weather will then linger through much of Saturday night...as the core of a H5 low with its -24c temps will pass directly across our region. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A mid-level trough will outrun its corresponding low-level low and move east of the region Sunday. The surface low will continue to weaken across the forecast area in the process. Unfortunately... this will lead to another cool and mostly cloudy day with low chances for light showers. Ridging and warm air advection will result in dry weather Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ridging will move into the eastern Great Lakes as another potent shortwave moves across the Central Plains Monday. A warm front will move through the forecast area and showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Monday through Monday night. Weak troughing will move into the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday through Wednesday. A cold front will slowly cross the forecast area and unsettled conditions will persist into mid-week. There is good agreement that ridging will move into the Great Lakes region while a large area of high pressure extends from eastern Canada to the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night through Thursday. Dry weather is likely across the forecast area during this time. Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal next work week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... While VFR weather will be found throughout the region through at least midday Saturday...there will be some rain to contend with. For the rest of the afternoon...the area of steady rain will be focused on the Finger Lakes area. This area of weather will taper off during the course of tonight with only a couple showers possible east of Lake Ontario after midnight. VFR conditions Saturday morning will deteriorate during the midday and afternoon...as showers will redevelop...particularly over the western counties. The increasing coverage of the showers and possible thunderstorms will be accompanied by CIGs that will lower to MVFR levels. Outlook... Saturday night...MVFR cigs with showers gradually diminishing in coverage. Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS with scattered showers. Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with the likelihood for showers and possible thunderstorms. Wednesday...Improving conditons with precipitation exiting. && .MARINE... Gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes (less than 15 knots) will continue on the Lakes, maintaining some light, to at times moderate chop through today. However, there are no Small Craft conditions forecast. Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will then be the rule through the most of the weekend, before a more pronounced southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm front approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...RSH MARINE...JM/TMA