Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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726 FXCA20 KWBC 081859 PMDCA TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 258 PM EDT WED MAY 08 2024 FORECAST BULLETIN 08 MAY 2024 AT 1900 UTC: A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO CENTER ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WHILE EXTENDING AN AXIS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA/THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS IN MOST OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF MOIST PLUMES BREWING IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT WET CONDITIONS TO PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND FAR SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. TO THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...A MID-UPPER TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ON WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ITS AXIS ACROSS THE MONA PASSACE INTO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN COLOMBIA...AND IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SLOWLY WHILE WEAKENING. BY FRIDAY EVENING TEXPECT THE TROUGH AXIS TO EXTEND NEAR 55W OR EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...UPPER TROUGH DYNAMICS WILL ENHANCE PRECIPIPITATION PRIMARILY IN AREAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN AXIS...ESPECIALLY GIVNE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST PLUME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 50MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. UPPER TROUGH DYNAMICS AND ENHANCED INSTABILITY WILL POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. IN HISPANIOLA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE UPPER CONVERGENT TIER OF THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES HOLD...EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IN ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLE IN ENHANCING VENTILATION AND CONVECTION IN FAR NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. FURTHERMORE...IT IS FAVORING A LOWERING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURES...WHICH IS YIELDING TO A NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE ITCZ/NET FROM THE NORTHERN AMAZON INTO NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. GIVEN AN ONGOING INCREASE IN EASTERLY WAVE ACTIVITY...EXPECT SEASONALLY WET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GUIANAS...VENEZUELA AND ESPECIALLY COLOMBIA. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTION ALONC THE NET IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN VENEZUELA WILL ALSO FAVOR MAXIMA IN THE 30-60MM/DAY RANGE. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO GENERALLY CLUSTER ALONG THE NET...WHERE EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA FO 40-80MM FROM FRENCH GUIANA WEST INTO CENTRAL COLOMBIA. ON FRIDAY...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL STIMULATE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM AND A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALSO A REGION OF INTEREST. MODELS CONTINUE RESOLVING AN ACTIVATION OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW. AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING EASTERLY WAVE AND WITH POTENTIAL TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN...EXPECT AN ENHANCED COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ON WEDNESDAY AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN WEST PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...WHILE IN THE DARIEN AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON THURSDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN PANAMA...WHILE IN COSTA RICA AND WEST NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BY FRIDAY...EXPECT POTENTIAL MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN MOST OF COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA...WHILE IN CENTRAL PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. GALVEZ...WPC (USA) $$