Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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235 FXUS62 KCAE 041700 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 100 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the area and will continue through early next week with showers and thunderstorms likely. Dry conditions should prevail for mid- week, with a return of showers and storms possible again by Friday. Expect well above normal temperatures each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this morning across the western Midlands and CSRA with another area currently developing in the eastern Midlands. This is in response to the short wave moving through the region with another short wave moving through the area later today and tonight. Although there is ample instability for thunderstorms the cloud cover is limiting heating keeping much of the convection limited in vertical development and thus more showers than thunderstorms. Rainfall efficiency has been impressive so far with rates between 2 and 2.5 inches per hour and with pwat values ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 inches through tonight expect this to continue. Will be monitoring several areas across the CSRA and western Midlands as up to 2.5 inches of rainfall has already fallen. Will also be monitoring the developing thunderstorms and rainfall rates in the eastern Midlands for any hydro related issues. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid 70s in the western Midlands and CSRA to the upper 70s to around 80 in the eastern Midlands. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure off shore will keep low-level moisture across the area Sunday and Sunday night. Weak upper shortwave will move through the area, and even with limited instability, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through the day. Daytime temperatures will be near normal, with highs in the lower 80s, while overnight lows will be in the middle 60s, which is well above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Monday into Tuesday will see upper trough passing through the area, with upper ridging then moving in Wednesday into Thursday. A deepening upper trough will then push southward into the region Friday. This pattern generally will bring a period of showers and thunderstorm early in the week, with dry weather then expected during the mid-week timeframe. By Friday, showers and thunderstorms will re-enter the region ahead of the approaching trough. Temperatures are also expected to gradually increase from just above normal on Monday, to well above normal through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Variable conditions in showers and thunderstorms with restrictions likely for much of the TAF period. Showers and a few thunderstorms have mainly been west of the terminals this morning and are now developing across the entire area. Have update the TAFs to include the developing convective activity through the evening hours. Cigs with the showers and thunderstorms will lower to 1 to 1.5 kft with vsbys lowering to 1 to 2SM as showers have been efficient rain producers with rainfall rates around 2 inches per hour. Convection will diminish early tonight however with high amounts of low level moisture expect stratus and fog to continue through the end of the period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Fog and stratus possible through at least Monday with abundant low level moisture in place. Showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible Sunday through Tuesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$