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000
FXUS62 KCHS 230715
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
315 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the Southeast U.S. through the
week and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Broad high pressure will extend across the region today
as a zonal flow dominates aloft. Dry conditions will prevail
under sunny skies. 1000-850 hPa thickness schemes support highs
in the lower-mid 70s away from the beaches with cooler
conditions closer to the coast where a modest sea breeze will
push inland by mid-afternoon.

Tonight: A zonal flow will remain in tact aloft. High pressure
will shift offshore of the Southeast U.S. coast tonight as a
westerly flow atop the Southern Appalachians induces weak lee-
side troughing over the South Carolina Upstate into the North
Carolina Foothills. The tightest pressure gradient between these
two features looks to hold to the north, so expect another
night of fairly light winds under clear skies. The risk for a
full decoupling of the boundary layer looks highest south of
I-16. Lows will range from the mid-upper 40s well inland the
upper 50s/near 60 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.
Similar to this morning, tight thermal gradients will occur
near bodies of water where water temperatures are running in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will persist through Wednesday, before a weak
front sinks into the region and possibly stalls in the vicinity
Wednesday night into Thursday. Impacts with the front look
minimal. A stray shower or two is not out of the question, but
probabilities remain too low to include in the forecast at this
time. Highs both days near normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Lows mainly in the mid to upper 50s Wednesday night will be a
touch more mild in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Thursday night.

High pressure extends south into the region on Friday, although
a weak inverted trough could pass through. Another day with slim
chances for rain, just perhaps a few brief pop-up showers. PoPs
are capped below 15%. Temperatures peak in the upper 70s to
around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
No weather concerns through the long term period. The center of
surface high pressure initially off the Northeast coast will
sink south through the weekend and into Monday, remaining the
primary feature in control of the local weather. Aloft, ridging
will extend over the Southeast. This pattern will support a
rain- free forecast and warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
23/06z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 24/06z Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Northeast winds will veer to the east and southeast this
afternoon as a sea breeze develops along the coast. Some sea
breeze enhancement is likely near the land/sea interface and
Charleston Harbor as the circulation propagates inland. Overall,
winds will generally remain less than 10 kt across the entire
marine area, possibly as high as 10-15 kt for a few hours in the
Charleston Harbor with the sea breeze. Seas this morning will
average 2-4 ft nearshore waters out 20 NM with 4-6 ft over the
Georgia offshore waters out 20-60 NM where a Small Craft
Advisory continues through early afternoon. Seas will subside to
2-3 ft nearshore waters and 4-5 ft over the Georgia offshore
waters later this afternoon.

Tonight: South winds will veer to the southwest overnight as
high pressure shifts offshore of the Southeast U.S. coast. Winds
will average 10 kt for so for most areas, except as high as
10-15 kt for the South Santee-Edisto Beach out 20 NM leg where a
slightly tighter pressure gradient will be found. Seas will
subside to 2-3 ft nearshore waters and 3-4 ft over the Georgia
offshore waters.

Wednesday through Sunday: No marine concerns through the period.
Southerly flow Wednesday becomes northeast then easterly through
late week as a weak front sinks into the region. High pressure
returns thereafter. Aside from a brief period on Wednesday when
winds reach the 15-20 knot range over the Charleston County waters,
winds speeds should generally average 15 knots or less and seas
2-4 feet.

Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk for rip currents at area
beaches today due to a combination of lunar influences, onshore
winds and 2 ft, 10 sec swell. Lingering 9 to 10 second swell
and proximity to the full moon will keep an elevated risk of
rip currents at all beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar will undergo maintenance today through April
26th. Critical electrical work is planned at the radar site
which will require the radar to be offline until the work is
completed. Once the radar is taken down, it will remain offline
until all electrical work is finalized. The radar is tentatively
scheduled to return to service by April 26.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ374.

&&

$$