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000
FXUS64 KCRP 151143
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
643 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Key Messages:

-Wind Advisory Today for portions of the Coastal Bend from 1 PM to 9
PM this evening

-Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 10 AM Tuesday morning

A combination of factors will contribute to our wind threat today.
There is a strengthening low level jet over our area associated with
the upper level disturbance over the Great Plains. A tight pressure
gradient will strengthen further this afternoon into the evening.
These factors will allow for increased winds mainly along the
Coastal Bend up to 40 MPH. With the increased onshore flow across
the area, Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist through Tuesday
morning across the bays and Gulf Waters. The winds will subside as
the gradient relaxes Tuesday with a boundary moving into north-
central Texas. It will be pretty hot outside Monday and Tuesday and
through the remainder of this week. High temperatures will be in the
80s to the east and 90s out west today and tomorrow with lows around
70. Heat indices out west today will be at... you guessed it, 100
degrees! This will likely be a recurring trend through this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Medium chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms this weekend

▶ Minor to moderate risk of heat-related through the work week

Gradient winds will relax Tuesday Night as the upper level trough
lifts into the upper midwest and a weak boundary settles into North
Central Texas.  Moisture pooling ahead of the boundary over South
Texas will result in mostly cloudy skies and hot conditions on
Wednesday, with Heat Indices exceeding 100 degrees out west. Similar
conditions can be expected each day through the end of the work week
as the upper level pattern becomes zonal. There is a low (<20%)
probability for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening along
the Rio Grande as the GFS shows a mid level s/w embedded within the
southern jetstream approaching that region. The ECMWF and SREF are
less prevalent. There is a slightly better (>20%) chance for
convection to cross the Rio Grande Thursday evening.  Rain chances
increase this upcoming weekend as a more substantial cold front
moves through the region coincident with a mid level s/w propagating
overhead.  There is still some uncertainty on the timing of the
front given run to run model inconsistency.  That said the latest
GFS/ECMWF runs are showing the front arriving Saturday night/Sunday
morning while the Canadian is a bit faster.  At this time guidance
progs marginal instability with CAPEs <1000 j/kg, but plenty of
shear (>50kts). Thus a few strong storms will be possible, mainly
Saturday night as the front moves through.  Again timing should
become more certain as the event gets closer. Expect considerably
cooler conditions on Sunday in the wake of the front with highs in
the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

MVFR conditions will exist through the day for sites CRP and VCT.
Other sites will transition to VFR around 15-16Z before
transitioning back to MVFR ceilings around 00-06Z. Tonight into
tomorrow morning guidance is portraying high probabilities for IFR
ceilings at sites VCT and ALI tomorrow morning.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Strong onshore flow is expected today through tonight. Onshore
flow will diminish to weak to moderate through the day Tuesday
along with decreasing seas. Weak to moderate onshore flow is
expected through the latter half of the week. Shower and
thunderstorm chances return Saturday and increase through the
weekend as a cold front approaches the waters combined with well
above normal moisture. This front should move off the coast by
Sunday with moderate northeast winds in its wake.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Mostly cloudy conditions are expected through this weekend.
Minimum relative humidity values in the Rio Grande Plains Tuesday
are expected to be in below 30%. Winds are expected to be light
enough to negate any concerns however. Minimum relative humidity
values will remain above 30% through the remainder of the period
with weak to moderate winds (10-20 mph). Showers and storm chances
return this weekend with the arrival of a cold front and an mid-
level disturbance interacting with above normal moisture.
Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not expected through
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    83  72  88  73 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          83  70  85  71 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            96  74  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             88  70  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          81  72  82  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           95  72  93  73 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        85  71  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       81  72  83  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ241>244-342>344.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
     Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...NP/92