Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
000
FXUS64 KCRP 220502
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1202 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
Key Messages:
- Potential for areas of fog late tonight through early Friday
morning mainly over the Coastal Plains and over the bays and
nearshore coastal waters
- An Elevated Fire Weather Risk may occur Friday Afternoon over
the Brush Country and over the Rio Grande Plains
Strong subsidence behind an upper level disturbance, currently
moving eastward across the region, will result in significant
drying aloft tonight/Friday. Concur with the NAM deterministic run
which predicts a thermodynamic profile conducive to radiation fog
overnight/early Friday morning. The SREF visibility probability
output suggests that the bulk of the fog will be confined to the
Coastal Plains, and over the adjacent bays/nearshore waters. There
is a risk that fog will also affect the Brush Country/Rio Grande
Plains. Dry conditions expected Friday/Friday night, with below
normal PWAT values. The combination of low relative humidity
values and wind may result in an Elevated fire weather condition
over the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains Friday afternoon. The
20ft wind speeds will be a limiting factor. Owing to the
uncertainty, will defer to later shifts to decide on an RFD
issuance for Friday. An upper level disturbance predicted to move
across the US/Canadian border will contribute to a surge of high
pressure/weak cold front that is predict to enter the CWA Friday
night. The NAM predicts a thermodynamic profile conducive to fog
09-12z Saturday, yet winds associated with the surge of high
pressure/frontal boundary may preclude fog.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
Key Messages:
-Breezy conditions are expected Sunday into early Monday with a 40-
60% chance of wind gusts over 40 MPH
- 20% chance for thunderstorms ahead of a cold front over the
Victoria Crossroads area Monday
Ridging over the area will bring mostly clear skies to the region to
begin the weekend. However, as we head into Sunday, the effects of
an approaching deep trough will begin to be felt. Southeasterly
winds will increase Sunday in response to a strengthening low level
jet and a tightening surface pressure gradient. There is currently a
40-60% chance of wind gusts over 40 mph Sunday afternoon.
These southerly low level winds will advect Gulf moisture into South
Texas with ensemble mean PWAT values forecast to rise above 1 inch
(just slightly above the 50th percentile for this time of year) by
Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, southwest flow above 400 hPa will
advect warmer and drier air from the elevated terrain of Mexico over
South Texas. Ensemble soundings exhibit a stout elevated mixed layer
extending from 700-400 hPa by Sunday evening which will inhibit the
development of convection along a cold front that is forecast to
push through the region Monday morning/afternoon. The most likely
location to see convection develop will be across the Victoria
Crossroads at the northeastern periphery of the elevated mixed layer
and the southern periphery of the increased mid-level support for
ascent associated with a Central Plains cyclone. However, the
chances for thunder are still forecast to be less than 20% on Monday.
High pressure is forecast to build in behind the surface cold front,
which will contribute to dry and warming conditions during the
middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
Things have changed since our last Aviation Update. Cloud cover
has diminished rapidly, with VFR conditions everywhere except the
Victoria Crossroads where IFR conditions are holding strong. This
drying lends further support to the idea of dense fog development
late tonight and into early Friday morning. Those over the
Coastal Plains will experience visibility down to 1/4 mile at
times so have included TEMPOs for LIFR visibility. LIFR ceilings
as well as LIFR visibility is expected in Victoria where higher
moisture remains tonight. Those over the Brush Country and Rio
Grande Plains will fare slightly better with generally VFR
conditions for LRD and COT. Have continued with a mention of MVFR
visibility for LRD and IFR/LIFR visibility/ceilings for COT in
the early morning hours. Conditions will quickly improve to VFR
through late Friday morning at all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
Areas of fog may develop late tonight through late Friday morning
over the bays/nearshore coastal waters. Otherwise, the cessation
of precipitation expected tonight owing to subsidence behind an
upper level disturbance. Dry conditions expected Friday. There is
a risk that fog will develop again Friday night, yet the risk
seems lower given the approach of a surge of high pressure/weak cold
front. Onshore winds will increase significantly Sunday morning
and remain elevated through early Monday morning. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are expected with a 30%-50% chance of wind
gusts over 34 knots. A cold front is forecast to push through the
coastal waters late Monday morning into the afternoon hours with
winds gradually decreasing and Small Craft Advisory conditions
ending by Monday afternoon. Winds less than 15 knots are expected
during the middle of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 62 88 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
Victoria 62 80 55 78 / 20 0 0 0
Laredo 58 92 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
Alice 61 90 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
Rockport 64 80 60 75 / 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 60 92 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 61 89 57 78 / 10 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 65 83 62 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232-236-250-
270.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ237-255-275.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....CLM
AVIATION...LS/77