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000
FNUS71 KCTP 090816
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Wolf Run West...PA - DCNR - BoF
National Weather Service State College PA
416 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 09.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
A warm and dry day is on tap for the District as a ridge of
surface high pressure slides off the Mid Atlantic Coast this
afternoon and light south winds freshen to 7-10 mph with
gusts in the mid to upper teens this afternoon.

Temperatures this afternoon will be anywhere from 12 to 18
degrees above normal this afternoon with highs in the upper
60s to mid 70s headed from Northwest to Southeast across the
region.

Clouds thicken up from the Southwest tonight with isolated
showers possible by dusk across the Allegheny Highlands of
Western, PA.

More numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will march east over the region tonight. The clouds and light
south to southwest breeze will keep the temps very mild with
with lows in the 55 to 60 degrees range.

A weak cold front will push east and become nearly stalled out
on a line from Watertown, NY to Elmira to State College and
Pittsburgh during the mid day hours on Wednesday. This boundary
will allow a few waves of low to ripple northeast along it
bringing periods of rain for the Wed and again on Thursday.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers
                    likely overnight.
LAL.................No Tstms until 2100, then 9-15 strikes until
                    0500, then No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 53.
Max Humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the late evening
                    and overnight.
Mixing Height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 13 mph shifting to the west 8 to
                    9 mph after 3 am.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................10 to 17.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  71  72  69  65  74  78  82  87  81  91  95  93
Weather Cov.......              SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather Type......              RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........              SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
LAL...............  1   1   1   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   5   1
Temp..............  65  62  59  57  57  55  54  54  54  53  53  54
RH................  52  60  72  77  77  86  90  93  93  100 96  96
20 FT Wind Dir....  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
20 FT Wind Spd....  7   7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   7   6
20 FT Wind Gust...  12  11  11  11  11  12  12  11  12  12  11  10
Mix Hgt (kft).....  2.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
Transp Wind Dir...  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp Wind Spd...  13  10  9   10  13  10  10  13  10  12  9   8
LVORI.............  2   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   6   7   6   6
ADI...............  17  17  17  11  11  11  11  11  11  10  10  10
Haines Index......  4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 64.
Min Humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 7 mph shifting to the
                    south around 6 mph early in the morning, then
                    shifting to the southwest 6 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing Height.......3100 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....West 8 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................10 to 26.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  91  83  86  94  91  87  83  79  75  75  75  75
Weather Cov.......  LKY LKY NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM
Weather Type......  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  53  53  54  54  56  57  59  60  62  63  63  63
RH................  100 100 96  100 96  93  83  78  70  67  65  65
20 FT Wind Dir....  SW  S   S   SW  SW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT Wind Spd....  7   6   6   6   6   7   7   6   6   6   7   7
20 FT Wind Gust...  11  10  10  10  10  11  11  11  10  10  10  10
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1
Transp Wind Dir...  W   W   W   SW  W   SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
Transp Wind Spd...  9   8   9   9   9   9   10  10  12  12  10  10
LVORI.............  7   8   6   5   5   5   4   3   3   3   2   2
ADI...............  10  10  10  17  17  17  26  26  26  26  26  26
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Martin
Requested by...Jeremy Dayhoff
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410004.0/CTP
.DELDT 04/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jerdayhoff@pa.gov