208
FNUS28 KWNS 302113
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0411 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move through the
northern Plains later this week with a large trough moving into the
western CONUS over the weekend. As this trough and the associated
jet streak emerge over the Southwest and into the Plains early next
week, fire weather concerns will increase across New Mexico and the
southern High Plains.

...D3/Thu - central and eastern New Mexico...
Northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen across New Mexico on
Friday as a lee cyclone develops in the southern High Plains.
Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected with relative humidity
in the single digits. Elevated to potentially critical fire weather
conditions are likely.

...D7/Mon-D8/Tue - southern High Plains...
Operational and ensemble guidance has come into agreement for a
strong mid-level trough to move into the western CONUS over the
weekend. The threat for critical fire weather conditions will
increase as strong to very strong mid-level flow overspreads the
well-mixed airmass in the Southwest. There still remains
considerable uncertainty with respect to the exact timing and
character of the mid-level trough. However, most solutions favor
strong mid-level flow across the Southwest with both the EPS and
GEFS ensembles showing an ensemble mean of 45+ knots which is a very
strong signal for Day7/8. Therefore, have added 70% Critical
probabilities for Day 7/Monday and 40% probabilities for
Day8/Tuesday.

..Bentley.. 04/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$