Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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354 FXUS63 KDDC 250905 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 405 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...Updated to include fire weather... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe storms will occur across central and southwest Kansas this afternoon and evening. - Severe t-storms are expected over south central Kansas Saturday afternoon. - Near critical to critical fire weather conditions will be limited to extreme western Kansas along the Colorado state line this afternoon. - Critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday afternoon across much of southwestern Kansas. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 A strong upper level disturbance over the desert southwest will approach the southern and central high plains late today. Ahead of this system, a warm advection pattern has resulted in showers and thunderstorms over eastern Kansas and northern and eastern Oklahoma this morning. The elevated thunder was along and north of a warm front that stretched from central Arkansas into central Oklahoma and into western Kansas. The location of the effective frontal boundary and dryline are still in question for late today. There has been a tendency for the models to shift the front north into northwest and central Kansas as opposed to a couple of days ago when all the models kept the front at or just southwest of Dodge City. The front will intersect the dryline at some point across western or northwestern Kansas this afternoon and evening and this will be a favored area for thunderstorm initiation, some severe, with very large hail and possibly tornadoes. Farther south, strong daytime heating ahead of the dryline and modest mid level cooling with the approaching disturbance should lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms by 3 to 5 pm. Any storms that form in the warm sector would likely be severe. However, prior to the development of the low level jet, these storms would pose more of a hail threat than tornadoes, although tornadoes can`t be ruled out. The tornado chances are higher along and just north of the front where low level storm relative helicity is higher as a result of strong shear near the ground (southeast winds veering to southwest). Much of the uncertainty in boundary placement stems from uncertainty in coverage of thunderstorms to the east and southeast of our area (northern and eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas) early this morning. If convection becomes more widespread this morning and generates more cool outflow, then the effective front would be farther southwest and west (closer to Dodge City). Otherwise, given the approaching disturbance that is lifting northeast in negative tilt fashion and strong pressure falls on the high plains, the front would redevelop along I-70, extending from northeast Oklahoma into south central Kansas and then to near WaKeeney and into northwest Kansas. The various models should come more into alignment with the 12z model run after overnight convection is properly taken into account. Therefore, there are a lot of question marks remaining and naming exact counties and towns that are favored for severe storms this evening is just not possible with any accuracy. However, for those interested in exact probabilities, based on the SPC outlook, there is a 10% chance of a significant tornado within 25 miles of a point across much of central and southwest Kansas this afternoon and evening. The chances of significant rainfall is of course tied to exact placement of storms. But generally, ahead of the dryline in the most air, there is about 10 to 30% chance of any given location receiving beneficial rainfall that could unfortunately also be accompanied by destructive hail and wind. The smallest chance for t-storms (less than 10%) is across extreme southwest Kansas in the dry air west of the dry line, including Elkhart, Johnson and Syracuse. Thunderstorms will end from southwest to northeast this evening as the upper level system passes. A weak frontal boundary will pass in the wake of this system, with dry air sweeping eastward. Thus, Friday will be dry, with southwest winds and highs in the 70s to lower 80s. This system will not have a strong cold surge associated with it since it is ejecting northeastward, with surface pressures remaining low in the wake of the front across the central plains owing to downslope mid level flow. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 The low level moisture that will be swept eastward Thursday night and early Friday will push back to the north and west Friday night into Saturday as the next upper level trough approaches. This system will be even stronger so that thunderstorms will erupt across south central Kansas by early to mid afternoon Saturday. The threat for severe weather is generally along and east of a line from Hays to Kinsley to Coldwater. Any severe risk farther west than this is unlikely as the low level moisture is not expected to progress very far west. Large hail and tornadoes are possible with the storms Saturday. Coverage of storms is expected to be greater Saturday than on Friday due to the very strong upper level disturbance involved. Thus, chances for significant rainfall are higher (50-70%) for locations such as Medicine Lodge and Stafford, with decreasing chances to the west. However, keep in mind that any beneficial rain could also be accompanied by destructive hail and damaging wind. In the wake of Saturday`s system, expect slightly cooler and drier air for Sunday. The various models and their ensembles suggest the development of zonal mid to upper level flow across the northern plains by Tuesday, with embedded disturbances. With Kansas being located south of this strong jet, expect a rapid warmup, with highs into the upper 70s Monday and 80s Tuesday. Chances for widespread rain are very low in this pattern. But with a dryline situated somewhere across the central plains early to mid next week, isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, particularly closer to the deeper moisture across south central Kansas. This is supported by the ensemble means of the ECMWF/ICON/GFS and CMCE that generally have very low probabilities (10 to 30%) of rainfall in excess of .5" next week, with the higher probabilities confined to south central Kansas and lowest over far southwest and western Kansas. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Low level moisture was streaming northward into a cool air mass north of a warm front. Expect thunderstorms overnight in vicinity of KHYS. Given the warm and moist advection, expect CIGS to drop to IFR and possibly LIFR by 10-13z before slowly improving with daytime heating and the passage of a warm front. Thunderstorms will form near a dry line by 21z, possibly affecting KGCK and KDDC between 21 and 01z, and KHYS after 00z. These storms could be severe with hail and damaging wind. Expect southeast winds to become southerly at 20-25 kts by 18-21z as the warm front passes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Near critical fire weather conditions will be confined to extreme western Kansas near the Colorado line today. This is because the surface dryline will be located over far western Kansas for most of the day. The second tier of southwest Kansas counties (Stevens to Kearny) may not quite reach critical conditions, but the red flag warning continues in effect as far east as Lakin and Hugoton. Critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday afternoon across much of southwest Kansas as a dry line passes by early afternoon. Humidity as low as 10% is likely, along with south to southwest gusts in excess of 35-40 mph. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085. && $$ SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Finch FIRE WEATHER...Finch