647
FXXX12 KWNP 070031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at high levels. Region 3663 (N25W45,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited slight separation in its intermediate
spots, showed little overall growth, and was responsible for the vast
majority of the M- and X-class flares. These included: an M1.6/2f flare
at 06/0106 UTC, an M1.3 flare at 06/0528 UTC, an X4.5/3b (R3/Strong)
flare at 06/0635 UTC, an M1.5 flare at 06/0959 UTC, and a long duration
M4.3 flare at 06/2227 UTC. There were additional C9 flares from this
region that just missed the M1 threshold.

The CME signature associated with the X4.5 flare that was observed in
coronagraph imagery beginning at 06/0712 UTC, was modeled and shown to
be narrow and oriented far northward of the Sun-Earth line. No Earth
impacts are expected from this event.

Region 3664 (S19E02, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) maintained its delta
configuration, continued to grow and evolve, but was only responsible
for a couple of mid-level C-class flares during the period. Region 3668
(S17E13, Dao/beta-gamma) displayed growth in overall areal extent as
well as new intermediate and trailer spots. Despite the growth, this
region was mostly inactive. New Region 3670 (N17E66, Hax/alpha) was
numbered during the period, but was also inactive. The remaining spotted
active regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to range from moderate to high levels over
07-09 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and a
high chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), due to the flare potential
of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 07-09 May. There is a chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 07-09 May
due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was indicative of the continued effects of
the 03 May CME arrival. Additionally, a positive polarity CH HSS likely
connected with the Earth during the time of the CME passage. Total field
strength continued to slowly increase, reaching a peak of 17 nT around
06/0609 UTC. The Bz component saw southward deflections to -12 nT before
turning mostly north for the latter half of the period. Solar wind
speeds slowly climbed over the period, reaching a peak over 565 km/s.

.Forecast...
Elevated solar wind conditions, associated a positive polarity CH HSS,
are likely to prevail over 07-08 May. On 09 May, the anticipated
glancing effects of a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May, may cause
enhancements in the solar wind environment before returning to nominal
levels by the end of the period.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 03 May, and the
likely onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
Active conditions are likely on 07 May as influence from a positive
polarity CH HSS persists. Waning CH HSS influences by 08 May should
bring quiet to unsettled levels briefly, before possibly ramping back up
to periods of active conditions on 09 May with the anticipated glancing
effects of a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May.