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000
FNUS73 KDLH 211536
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Crex Meadows Unit 86...Wisconsin DNR
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1036 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on April 21.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

1030 AM UPDATE- RH values are dropping more rapidly than expected
this morning, so we have updated for a lower Minimum RH this
afternoon. Temperatures may also creep into the lower 60s. We have
also made some minor updates to winds based on morning trends.

Sunny skies this morning are expected to continue through the day.
Deep mixing will be occurring today, dropping min RH this
afternoon to around 23 percent. Wind direction through today will
be varying between west and west-northwest with speeds of 6 to 13
mph. Expect excellent smoke dispersal today as transport winds
increase to 17-22 mph later this morning and mixing height
increases to around 7,600 feet.

Expect a wind shift to occur this evening around 2200 CDT with
winds becoming southwesterly ahead of an approaching low pressure.
This low pressure is likely (40% chance) to bring rain showers to
the burn site on Monday afternoon. These rain showers will
continue on and off into Tuesday. Total precipitation accumulation
on Monday through Tuesday will be around 0.10 inches.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......7300 ft AGL increasing to 7600 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 17 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (99400-128300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............50  54  56  58  60  60  60
RH..............34  28  24  21  18  17  18
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..10  11  12  12  12  11  10
20 FT wind gust.14  15  18  19  19  18  16
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   W   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.21  22  21  20  20  18  17
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100099  126 127 124 128 121 107

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest
                    5 to 6 mph late in the evening.
Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 16 mph shifting to the southwest 9 to
                    13 mph late in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (93600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (2800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............59     52     44     39     35     34
RH..............18     27     47     57     64     66
20 ft wind......W 9    W 7    SW 5   SW 4   SW 4   S 5
20 ft wind gust.14     11     8      8      8      9
Mix hgt (ft)....6700   600    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..W 16   W 8    SW 9   SW 10  SW 10  SW 12
Haines index....5      6      6      6      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100094     5      3      3      3      4

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 14 to 16 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL increasing to 5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 20 mph increasing to southwest 23
                    to 30 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4300-20100 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (99300-137000 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      40     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............34     39     53     61     65     65
RH..............66     62     43     35     33     34
20 ft wind......S 6    S 9    S 13   S 16   S 16   SW 16
20 ft wind gust.9      14     20     23     23     23
Mix hgt (ft)....400    700    1700   3800   5300   4300
Transport wind..S 13   S 15   SW 23  SW 28  SW 30  SW 26
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10004      9      33     92     137    99

$$
Forecaster...Linda
Requested by...Joe Dittrich; Renae Essenmacher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411504.0/DLH
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL renae.essenmacher@wi.gov,joseph.dittrich@wi.gov