Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
430 FNUS21 KWNS 050605 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire-weather conditions are expected later today across portions of the Desert Southwest, particularly from central/western NM into extreme southeastern AZ. Sustained surface winds around 20-25 mph and relative humidities approaching the single digits are forecast across the region, collocated with fuels supporting fire spread. These conditions will be present throughout the afternoon and evening across the delineated Critical and Elevated areas. The meteorological setup will be strongly influenced by a potent upper-level trough moving eastward toward the Desert Southwest today. The associated surface cyclone -- expected to deepen in the northern Rockies -- will yield strong westerly surface flow across AZ/NM. Despite some possible upper-level cloud cover, deep boundary-layer mixing and drying are anticipated. Surface relative humidities around 10-15 percent, and perhaps in the single digits in some locations, are expected by mid-afternoon. These dry and windy conditions are anticipated across a region with fuels supporting large-fire spread (e.g., ERCs generally around 70 percent or greater, increasing with southward extent). These critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated from mid-afternoon until sunset, particularly from around Albuquerque south-southwest to the Chiricahua Mountains. ..Flournoy.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$