964
ACUS01 KWNS 281626
SWODY1
SPC AC 281625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with
the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few
tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas.

...East TX/LA/Southern AR...
A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight
has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX.
Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the
east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and
little inhibition.  This will result in rejuvenation of storms by
mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary.  Forecast
soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for
supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
few tornadoes.  This activity will spread eastward through the
evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind
gusts and isolated tornadoes.

...OK/AR/MO...
The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across
much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud
cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s.  Many of
the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to
this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late
afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at
this time.  Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK
seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and
a tornado or two from this activity.  Storms that form will spread
eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening.

..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024

$$