Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
454 ACUS02 KWNS 081736 SWODY2 SPC AC 081735 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity Thursday afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...East TX to South Carolina... Most guidance is in agreement that an MCS will be ongoing Thursday morning in the vicinity of northeast AL into northern GA. The expectation is that this MCS will develop southeast toward southeast GA/far southern SC through the day. Maintenance of this system should be supported by a shortwave impulse migrating across the region with 40 kt of 850-700 mb southwesterly flow overspreading a very moist airmass. Downstream destabilization ahead of the MCS across central/southern GA and perhaps portions of eastern AL is forecast, with MLCAPE to near 2500 J/kg expected. Both GFS and NAM forecast soundings indicate steep low-level lapse rates develop amid strong heating into the 80s F. Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and elongated hodographs are present. Severe/damaging wind potential will be the main concern given expected bowing convective mode. However, should any more discrete convection develop, a risk for large hail and a tornadoes also will be present given an environment capable of supporting supercells. Further east, a cluster of supercells is expected to develop across north TX southward toward the Hill Country in the vicinity of the intersecting dryline and cold front. Strong to extreme instability (3500+ MLCAPE) is anticipated amid a plume of very steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support intense updraft development amid 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Very large hail (2-3 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms. Steep low-level lapse rates, large CAPE and water-loaded downdrafts also will support damaging wind potential. With time, the damaging wind risk will increase as clustering occurs. Most guidance generates an eastward propagating MCS from the east TX cluster, moving across northern LA into MS/AL during the evening/nighttime hours. This activity is expected to move along the gradient of strong to extreme instability across this region ahead of the southeastward progressing cold front. Some potential will exist for significant gusts (to near 75 mph). ...North Carolina to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward to far eastern NC. Nevertheless, weak destabilization/airmass recovery is forecast by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward across parts of VA/NC ahead of the south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Locally strong gusts and small hail will be possible with this activity. ..Leitman.. 05/08/2024 $$